AI · resolved market
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b68c04fa47def97bdec5e75444bdb8b0b0ab559a117832bdf23ce84445cc881
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $216,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $215,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 77c | 8,309$6,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,880.92 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…b27abacked No | 26c | 7,366$1,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,915.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed No | 15c | 7,259$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.91 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce87…1f99backed No | 22c | 6,091$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed No | 14c | 5,697$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.94 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a8…9281backed No | 21c | 5,679$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ca…d04cbacked No | 1c | 5,375$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7a…29f6backed No | 13c | 5,076$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0981…af93backed No | 0c | 5,035$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 79c | 4,916$3,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.73 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 2c | 4,029$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed No | 13c | 3,500$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1050…9393backed No | 23c | 3,110$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 17c | 2,827$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.13 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed No | 7c | 2,661$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +192.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked No | 22c | 2,636$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked No | 16c | 2,425$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23db…cf1cbacked No | 17c | 2,317$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 25c | 2,202$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.13 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 76c | 2,176$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.89 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…b1e9backed No | 20c | 1,948$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 19c | 1,884$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.52 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc28d…1773backed No | 23c | 1,737$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed No | 19c | 1,718$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.59 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb19c…2467backed No | 17c | 1,632$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 19c | 1,586$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.79 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 17c | 1,464$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.91 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked No | 21c | 1,432$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…973ebacked No | 20c | 1,414$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.88 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed No | 22c | 1,171$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 19c | 1,150$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x485a…1c1fbacked No | 6c | 1,119$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.23 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…2dadbacked Yes | 80c | 1,075$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8a…d6aebacked No | 21c | 1,068$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37fd…7101backed No | 23c | 977.29$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 17c | 914$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.51 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 12c | 887.34$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.55 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7e…28ddbacked No | 16c | 846$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 16c | 804.84$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked No | 19c | 800$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2ceebacked No | 20c | 746.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.05 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 80c | 667.57$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.89 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 14c | 654.11$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.97 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed Yes | 80c | 627$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 18c | 607.49$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Yes | 80c | 599.99$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 599.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…4798backed No | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf03…9db4backed Yes | 78c | 549.05$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.79 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3358…9bdcbacked No | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b9…4d3abacked No | 17c | 499.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 74c | 489.87$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15bc…d3afbacked No | 20c | 488.69$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked No | 21c | 479.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 22c | 460.01$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.86 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…d4a1backed No | 22c | 457.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 16c | 422.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.96 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…6ee3backed No | 17c | 419.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 13c | 412.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0551…3d39backed Yes | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0143…239abacked Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0382…c110backed No | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b38abacked No | 22c | 399.39$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.39 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…21b0backed No | 20c | 397.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 23c | 339.18$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…90c7backed Yes | 77c | 320$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 78c | 320$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 15c | 320$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74b…3241backed No | 22c | 315$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a98…c07ebacked No | 24c | 303.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…fce0backed No | 18c | 301.17$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 23c | 300.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…6857backed Yes | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 20c | 295$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd51…730abacked Yes | 78c | 294.94$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…025abacked No | 24c | 294.39$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed No | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3d…235fbacked No | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed Yes | 76c | 286.54$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1a16…f468backed Yes | 79c | 285.46$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0f…ac4dbacked No | 20c | 284$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked No | 19c | 282.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…9c7fbacked No | 19c | 280$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4869…509bbacked No | 24c | 279.97$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2c…5f76backed No | 4c | 279.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…b6c4backed No | 6c | 274.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fa…d3fbbacked No | 23c | 273$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 22c | 270.76$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x626e…fa46backed No | 17c | 270.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf0…9180backed No | 24c | 268.22$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed No | 24c | 266.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ce…57c4backed No | 16c | 259.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa552…3306backed No | 22c | 252$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…8f26backed No | 20c | 251.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb82…0318backed No | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked Yes | 77c | 248.12$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.88 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacea…eeecbacked No | 24c | 248$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?this page
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.