AI · resolved market
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0b4220af7493e1d17c0696f9e4c0b6633daf08d7001e2d75972e43fc6446492
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $675,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $701,825
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $675,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 790 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 30c | 135,063$40,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,851.23 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 37c | 17,411$6,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,479.79 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 71c | 16,136$11,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,665.51 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 68c | 15,485$10,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,990.16 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 26c | 13,813$3,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,562.84 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…d7e9backed No | 79c | 11,678$9,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,485.77 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed No | 64c | 10,800$6,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,885.67 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 2c | 9,899$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 45c | 9,502$4,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,266.36 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 4c | 8,273$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 10c | 6,370$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 6c | 6,331$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -86.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a0…2c5abacked No | 48c | 6,281$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,280.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8d2cbacked No | 67c | 5,671$3,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,862.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc401…8b2cbacked Yes | 18c | 5,336$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5253…c21fbacked Yes | 48c | 5,286$2,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,532.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2de…6dd1backed Yes | 11c | 5,106$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc28d…1773backed No | 61c | 5,093$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,993.31 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes | 1c | 4,782$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked No | 57c | 4,777$2,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,053.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f1…f437backed Yes | 32c | 4,240$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…01debacked Yes | 17c | 4,068$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.71 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 47c | 4,026$1,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.82 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 65c | 4,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c50…de45backed No | 65c | 3,534$2,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,236.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…50c8backed No | 67c | 3,346$2,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.35 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7418…3f31backed No | 55c | 3,185$1,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 75c | 3,144$2,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.46 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…f1a7backed No | 51c | 2,936$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x485a…1c1fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,919$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd342…b414backed Yes | 35c | 2,725$954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$954.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,572$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.86 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef5…cf2cbacked No | 78c | 2,548$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,465$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.51 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…7f0dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,419$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe2…0d54backed No | 68c | 2,321$1,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked No | 80c | 2,271$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…f2cfbacked No | 75c | 2,265$1,689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…d83fbacked No | 79c | 2,264$1,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x626e…fa46backed Yes | 17c | 2,262$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812b…14d0backed Yes | 30c | 2,207$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 32c | 2,193$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.84 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…1024backed Yes | 29c | 2,186$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 21c | 2,115$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.69 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 22c | 2,027$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.27 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdff9…fa6abacked No | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 21c | 2,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.05 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…e5fabacked No | 73c | 1,960$1,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.63 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 58c | 1,940$1,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.2 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 35c | 1,857$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.94 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 39c | 1,796$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,765$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.24 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f92…d732backed Yes | 51c | 1,753$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe412…8d3cbacked No | 43c | 1,712$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,690$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.02 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 56c | 1,688$947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.61 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…e636backed Yes | 60c | 1,679$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 44c | 1,640$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…3627backed Yes | 32c | 1,620$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.98 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +90.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 1,620$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.94 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…46a8backed No | 49c | 1,616$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27da…d24abacked Yes | 6c | 1,595$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.34 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…001ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,595$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cf…25e0backed Yes | 27c | 1,571$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…3f28backed No | 53c | 1,558$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked No | 69c | 1,515$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e6…9da2backed Yes | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 66c | 1,446$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…1294backed No | 70c | 1,439$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8e…39f5backed Yes | 58c | 1,435$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed Yes | 26c | 1,386$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.76 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 64c | 1,363$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.98 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01fb…2d69backed Yes | 14c | 1,286$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed Yes | 28c | 1,205$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.09 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 47c | 1,193$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…aa34backed Yes | 8c | 1,177$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67cf…0bd9backed Yes | 34c | 1,172$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc438…3ae6backed No | 43c | 1,161$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed No | 67c | 1,131$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 48c | 1,100$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.99 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x577a…6c80backed No | 79c | 1,091$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked Yes | 46c | 1,085$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.11 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…2322backed Yes | 50c | 1,077$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a3…962fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,073$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.3 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…136bbacked No | 51c | 1,065$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 75c | 1,060$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.99 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed71…d7cebacked Yes | 34c | 1,054$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…0debbacked Yes | 5c | 1,022$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 27c | 1,015$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…6248backed No | 69c | 1,013$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 67c | 1,010$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.48 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x548a…e37abacked No | 67c | 1,008$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…feb0backed Yes | 18c | 1,007$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…8409backed No | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf96…9942backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…42adbacked Yes | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 9c | 998.21$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76f…3445backed Yes | 13c | 967.53$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?this page
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.