AI · resolved market
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x059b54ba58354c41b6021f092c57b42b812680116f32b3e8f6de707fcda09c84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb77…4e6bbacked Yes | 7c | 11,909$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.61 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 23c | 9,691$2,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,181 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…973ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,521$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.36 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 74c | 3,375$2,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.41 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05b5…533bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,066$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 71c | 1,023$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.02 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.92 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…1574backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 7c | 908.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 14c | 899.98$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e5…2418backed Yes | 17c | 799.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 750.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…5ae8backed Yes | 19c | 700$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 624.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 11c | 623.36$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 562.03$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.3 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 7c | 501$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…c282backed Yes | 8c | 357.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…179ebacked Yes | 19c | 332.5$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 70c | 329.99$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b75…405cbacked Yes | 8c | 325.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6627…000cbacked No | 80c | 322.55$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 6c | 322$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae1f…86c4backed No | 80c | 312.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbda…addabacked Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 18c | 300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d7…f73abacked Yes | 7c | 299.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 8c | 258.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 235.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 80c | 224.95$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 73c | 210.3$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…cdb2backed Yes | 10c | 207.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e28…3488backed Yes | 7c | 199.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes | 20c | 185.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 72c | 162.27$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.44 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 15c | 138.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 24c | 116.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…b9edbacked Yes | 20c | 100.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3550…f7ffbacked Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 74c | 97.17$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 79c | 94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…0a8cbacked No | 70c | 74.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…a390backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…3843backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…540cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…e8f7backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b9…d361backed No | 78c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?this page
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 10?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 6?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?Yes won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?No won
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.