TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6f29…0a8c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
45
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 52 out of 100; worst Commodities at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT2236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.12
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.2
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.99
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+77%+$87
GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+68.6%+$131.09
GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$70
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$463Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+36%+$166.9
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.43
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.84
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,812Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,811.73
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$3.36
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$562Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$562.12
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$154
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+93.8%+$101.63
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$22.37
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$22
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$134
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.64
GPT-5.4 released by March 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$94.4
All 22 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$132
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+733.3%+$880
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$190
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$965Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$964.91
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+54.1%+$105.27
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$768Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$768
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+164.4%+$189.74
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.3
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.