AI · resolved market
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06f874f16652c99b90d6fa81199dc3711678e87cb3cca4fa4afacc7ccc49724e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked Yes | 2c | 5,893$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.85 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,052$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 54c | 2,518$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.55 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,006$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 43c | 1,868$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.64 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 42c | 1,659$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.6 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 49c | 1,445$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.8 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 52c | 1,336$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.12 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 34c | 1,199$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.02 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 1,110$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.02 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…6055backed Yes | 6c | 1,087$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 56c | 787.32$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.56 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 718.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 699.99$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.22 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…3741backed Yes | 55c | 664$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.92 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…25a4backed Yes | 6c | 599.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 30c | 565.26$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.04 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58d7…1075backed Yes | 41c | 529.51$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 65c | 500$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 66c | 476.09$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.22 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b5…d5c6backed Yes | 8c | 447.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…6e3fbacked Yes | 48c | 424.07$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 55c | 404.85$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.53 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3594…dc58backed Yes | 50c | 403.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 391.56$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.17 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 35c | 369.37$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.09 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 56c | 357.99$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.94 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 47c | 340.6$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 70c | 333.33$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e50…b28abacked Yes | 68c | 302.94$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ac…2c21backed Yes | 53c | 300$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked No | 48c | 292.72$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.21 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 58c | 275$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.84 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a79…43b5backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa593…924dbacked No | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a98…c07ebacked Yes | 59c | 206.56$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa66b…0b8bbacked No | 46c | 200.72$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +77%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 43c | 197.73$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed Yes | 67c | 181.13$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes | 41c | 175.44$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 57c | 160$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 42c | 157.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.65 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -33%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 23c | 132.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked No | 60c | 131.76$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…7877backed No | 67c | 123.52$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 61c | 116$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed Yes | 62c | 108.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.99 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8673…4025backed No | 38c | 108.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb637…4c42backed No | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +217.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2af1…6b27backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…df2ebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02f…a77ebacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bb…1b01backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…0b7abacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…c35abacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…b9edbacked Yes | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 65c | 95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…bed6backed Yes | 51c | 93.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…c46abacked Yes | 38c | 91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…03cabacked No | 44c | 90.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…466abacked No | 53c | 90$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 56c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 60c | 84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 61c | 80.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 54c | 74.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked Yes | 60c | 73.53$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 59c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 53c | 63.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 44c | 57.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…25a4backed No | 51c | 57.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 51c | 54.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…0a8cbacked Yes | 36c | 53.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7843…fd3cbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -10.6wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c19…cd48backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 58c | 46.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +9.8wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…4c3abacked Yes | 46c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…053dbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +97.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed Yes | 50c | 39.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 35c | 37.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3c…8e0bbacked Yes | 69c | 35.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72cf…cbadbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…e027backed Yes | 45c | 34.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d40…a874backed Yes | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…649fbacked No | 54c | 32.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…8646backed Yes | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a4…3e32backed Yes | 43c | 31.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x469e…6f20backed Yes | 52c | 30.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…19c4backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5a…aa7abacked No | 54c | 27.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 52c | 26.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…a4d3backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?No won
- Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?No won
- Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?No won
- Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?No won
- Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.