TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,403
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,979

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,403 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2107…8a8abacked Yes2c5,893$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.85812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-67.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c3,052$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.952560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed No54c2,518$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.5514337.8%54 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,006$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.311,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x876b…1703backed Yes43c1,868$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.646237.1%23 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes42c1,659$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.617824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes49c1,445$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.827536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes52c1,336$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.1216418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed No34c1,199$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.0236945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No61c1,110$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.0219432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5cd…6055backed Yes6c1,087$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-60.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No56c787.32$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.5610723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes2c718.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8826312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No52c699.99$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.2245738.9%178 W · 279 L-31.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x124a…3741backed Yes55c664$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.922532%8 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82ed…25a4backed Yes6c599.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+126.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes30c565.26$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.0419818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58d7…1075backed Yes41c529.51$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes65c500$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3258433.3%28 W · 56 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes66c476.09$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.225733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6b5…d5c6backed Yes8c447.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.22955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x757d…6e3fbacked Yes48c424.07$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.3720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes55c404.85$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.5332228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3594…dc58backed Yes50c403.08$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006338.1%24 W · 39 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c391.56$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1772935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No35c369.37$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.098047.5%38 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No56c357.99$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.948754%47 W · 40 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes47c340.6$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.69543.2%41 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No70c333.33$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10013422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e50…b28abacked Yes68c302.94$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed Yes65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1956040%24 W · 36 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96ac…2c21backed Yes53c300$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73ec…f5bbbacked No48c292.72$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.214969.4%34 W · 15 L+9.0wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes58c275$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.8412533.6%42 W · 83 L-12.2wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1a79…43b5backed Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa593…924dbacked No60c250$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a98…c07ebacked Yes59c206.56$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.8740%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa66b…0b8bbacked No46c200.72$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.624628.3%13 W · 33 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+77%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes43c197.73$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.126141%25 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf08c…91e9backed Yes67c181.13$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.974839.6%19 W · 29 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+33.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fe…24e5backed Yes41c175.44$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.154339.5%17 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes57c160$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.26462.5%40 W · 24 L+0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed No42c157.94$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.652445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked Yes52c150$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes23c132.11$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.678933.7%30 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4207…b81bbacked No60c131.76$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.051353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3860…7877backed No67c123.52$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.181553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No61c116$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.249525.3%24 W · 71 L-13.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-16.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed Yes62c108.05$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.991573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+71.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8673…4025backed No38c108.05$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.997135.2%25 W · 46 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed No44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.39per pick41cpaid+217.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2af1…6b27backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5007…df2ebacked No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb02f…a77ebacked Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7bb…1b01backed No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.712100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+136.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3299…0b7abacked Yes65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c11…c35abacked Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354242.9%18 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x840e…b9edbacked Yes52c99.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.99837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes65c95$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4810938.5%42 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82fb…bed6backed Yes51c93.33$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+55.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ba6…c46abacked Yes38c91$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed4c…03cabacked No44c90.9$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60f1…466abacked No53c90$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+22.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes56c85$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.930127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No60c84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.63545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed No61c80.52$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.373850%19 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed No54c74.33$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.93757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+24.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d0d…849cbacked Yes60c73.53$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No59c65$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.42470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+24.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No53c63.16$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.395655.4%31 W · 25 L+7.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+7.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No42c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.811636.2%42 W · 74 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No44c57.94$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.453339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-33.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b03…25a4backed No51c57.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked No51c54.46$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.663946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f29…0a8cbacked Yes36c53.11$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.22236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7843…fd3cbacked Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick42cpaid+2.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.525632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes65c50$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.55026%13 W · 37 L-10.6wins-0.21per pick47cpaid-59.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x347b…c9bcbacked No26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c19…cd48backed No64c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick70cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes71c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.434346.5%20 W · 23 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-27.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbada…d874backed No58c46.97$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.583974.4%29 W · 10 L+9.8wins+0.25per pick49cpaid+62.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x9ecb…4c3abacked Yes46c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.551816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-58.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xab30…053dbacked No42c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+97.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64a7…2133backed No41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.61546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+58.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x126e…c360backed Yes50c39.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.394420.5%9 W · 35 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No35c37.85$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5789317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xdb3c…8e0bbacked Yes69c35.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.611030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72cf…cbadbacked Yes58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafb7…e027backed Yes45c34.48$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d40…a874backed Yes39c34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f0…649fbacked No54c32.97$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.28966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f0…8646backed Yes36c32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.521040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03a4…3e32backed Yes43c31.24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x469e…6f20backed Yes52c30.57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65d7…19c4backed Yes47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5a…aa7abacked No54c27.8$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae91…0f69backed No52c26.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.558076.3%61 W · 19 L+12.0wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+48.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x900e…a4d3backed No42c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.51478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+25.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.