TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$49,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,834

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,708 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x215a…254cbacked Yes30c2,837$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.0213422.4%30 W · 104 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed No72c2,807$2,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.7111855.9%66 W · 52 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x124a…3741backed Yes24c1,751$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.192532%8 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb89f…1c44backed No71c1,023$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.8314337.8%54 W · 89 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-16.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb48…be6dbacked No72c1,003$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.036141%25 W · 36 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-25.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No78c924.1$716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.7816418.9%31 W · 133 L-21.7wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-51.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No71c852$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.0817824.2%43 W · 135 L-12.4wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-56%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes28c741.91$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.2229430.6%90 W · 204 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7bb…a9f7backed No75c670$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick64cpaid+37.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed No69c600$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.636945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24019432%62 W · 132 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-40.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes5c498.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.913946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No77c455.43$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.178754%47 W · 40 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe6b5…d5c6backed No80c442.56$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.51955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick33cpaid+19.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked No76c400$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961650%8 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes31c382.19$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2819818.7%37 W · 161 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes20c356.8$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5832228.9%93 W · 229 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes16c350$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.488123.5%19 W · 62 L-9.6wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-55.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes10c321.6$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4122019.5%43 W · 177 L-11.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes30c300$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.48435.7%30 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No78c264.74$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.1810938.5%42 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No76c264$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.4410723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked No78c250.4$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.43683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+79.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a8a…d6aebacked No74c237.68$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4207…b81bbacked No59c225.62$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.951353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes26c204.99$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.835655.4%31 W · 25 L+7.2wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+7.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5007…df2ebacked No75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2c8…c674backed Yes27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f29…0a8cbacked Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-44%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8908…a6c0backed Yes30c190$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No69c189.61$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.788047.5%38 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes28c185$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.87143.7%31 W · 40 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes24c174$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.349525.3%24 W · 71 L-13.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-16.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3601…f722backed Yes28c162.86$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc94f…7e87backed Yes28c154.5$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ca6…424bbacked Yes28c150.3$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3be0…9836backed No75c140$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.41435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72cf…cbadbacked Yes16c125$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf26e…cf82backed No76c120$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.81060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No75c113.1$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8315047.3%71 W · 79 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No53c106.18$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.7789317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes24c104.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2528826.7%77 W · 211 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275733.3%19 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0e0…016abacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.7wins-0.23per pick36cpaid-83.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick39cpaid-76.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf763…8d83backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+126.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9448…b72ebacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31100%0 W · 10 L-3.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x876b…1703backed Yes17c99.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.926237.1%23 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca75…05a6backed No49c97.82$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.891353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf400…1620backed No74c85.7$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.28633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick61cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x38a8…865abacked Yes22c85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.052317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaea…1d63backed Yes31c82.61$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No51c80$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.28933.7%30 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf57d…bf12backed Yes24c77.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.532133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-19.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c3e…5a86backed Yes27c74.07$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes27c70$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.94816.7%8 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ecb…4c3abacked Yes21c69.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.771816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-58.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96ee…0662backed Yes24c65$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-6.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2191…628ebacked Yes22c64.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.28333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes23c63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6414423.6%34 W · 110 L-12.0wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-37.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed Yes20c61.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.433545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3237…5658backed No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.62055%11 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No80c57$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.45940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd6…42e9backed Yes31c55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes32c50.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3525632.8%84 W · 172 L-24.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes28c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145026%13 W · 37 L-10.6wins-0.21per pick47cpaid-59.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.865038%19 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f92…d732backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.781361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+26.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9f7…0c88backed Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.832138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99f0…649fbacked No77c45.52$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.28966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes25c44.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3572935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xae91…0f69backed No71c42.25$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.258076.3%61 W · 19 L+12.0wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+48.1%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9c3f…bc25backed No79c42$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.03580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+50.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes29c41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.891,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x333d…e8b7backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa306…a39dbacked Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf3a…cdddbacked Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cfe…4306backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9a7…20fbbacked Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f1…f437backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6da…3699backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a08…1a00backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+64.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x266b…afaabacked Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc209…7082backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+86.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x20b8…fc2fbacked Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+41.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x81b9…38f8backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+111.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No72c37.23$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.32470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+24.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82cd…d7d8backed No74c31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.061450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-18.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.948033.8%27 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x72be…95d5backed No71c28.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbada…d874backed No53c26.19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.313974.4%29 W · 10 L+9.8wins+0.25per pick49cpaid+62.4%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No80c25.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.179543.2%41 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5675…f6a6backed No72c23.79$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.661573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick51cpaid+71.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xabcf…4cfcbacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-47.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb94…e6fbbacked No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04ae…da79backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea34…5630backed No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.26837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick63cpaid-46.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.45162.7%32 W · 19 L+6.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+23.1%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.