AI · resolved market
Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ada778804b63d2ce73168b40519d6c8e44a1ef910ac984515de652cd05559d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 170 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb64f…dc88backed No | 78c | 10,635$8,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,322.95 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 3,800$1,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.99 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 50c | 3,500$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.77 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 58c | 2,835$1,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,658.18 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 41c | 2,264$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.46 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,787$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 1,676$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.97 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 27c | 1,610$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.5 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 21c | 1,602$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.23 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 33c | 1,523$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.63 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Yes | 23c | 1,304$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.92 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,255$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 17c | 1,176$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 31c | 1,094$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.42 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 68c | 1,061$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725.44 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…787cbacked Yes | 15c | 1,050$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…978ebacked Yes | 16c | 937.5$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…8a8abacked Yes | 16c | 937.49$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 58c | 889.62$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.98 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 44c | 872.58$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.64 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…25a4backed Yes | 8c | 800$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +126.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x638d…3d87backed Yes | 77c | 720.2$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31b3…b35cbacked Yes | 16c | 600$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f3…d6ddbacked No | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb2…d640backed No | 21c | 430.81$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 72c | 400$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…0a8cbacked Yes | 64c | 399.99$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.99 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 67c | 386.45$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.34 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 49c | 316$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.16 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf583…6f79backed No | 50c | 316$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +175%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 28c | 290.17$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.84 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44a…cc0bbacked No | 35c | 285$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 29c | 281$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.73 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 20c | 267.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.85 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 61c | 262$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.82 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 24c | 248.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.28 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 71c | 246.81$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.72 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed Yes | 63c | 235.08$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66c…8460backed No | 49c | 230$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7811…5546backed No | 40c | 230$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 40c | 224.27$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.59 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 210.75$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.03 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4460…54d1backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…b6c4backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked Yes | 43c | 185.4$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.2 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 43c | 185$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.45 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 7c | 160.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86a…4d34backed Yes | 77c | 138.85$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…4ef2backed Yes | 63c | 130.53$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 39c | 122.47$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 70c | 120$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf26e…cf82backed No | 50c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…7877backed Yes | 61c | 114.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 24c | 102.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 39cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…082dbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 52c | 97.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 62c | 92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 42c | 90.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed Yes | 69c | 90$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 41c | 87.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x758a…f23cbacked Yes | 61c | 85.02$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f92…d732backed No | 44c | 80$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fda…50f7backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…7a82backed Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…fc2fbacked No | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 71c | 72.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 75c | 72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b3…74c4backed Yes | 61c | 71.92$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…ef07backed Yes | 68c | 67.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc883…c2cbbacked Yes | 70c | 66.73$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a17…fc4fbacked Yes | 68c | 65.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 16c | 65.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…6854backed Yes | 70c | 65.52$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 26c | 65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 39c | 64.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4d…90dfbacked Yes | 70c | 64.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…f722backed Yes | 75c | 63.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…8ba8backed Yes | 23c | 62.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af1…6b27backed No | 42c | 62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94f…7e87backed Yes | 75c | 60.78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed Yes | 65c | 60.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a34…51fabacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea7…7fc0backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked No | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 17c | 59.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.51 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca6…424bbacked Yes | 75c | 59.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca7e…4e99backed Yes | 61c | 58.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…a81ebacked Yes | 70c | 58.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…61dcbacked Yes | 77c | 58.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36d7…b6e1backed Yes | 61c | 58.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450 by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1460 by December 31, 2026?No won
- Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?No won
- Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?No won
- Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?No won
- Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.