AI · resolved market
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6d067e531ce2ea4b13a3ae88fe3be6ffc7448ac3bc4bdc223b6f0da998d0f72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,572
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,572 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ecb…4c3abacked Yes | 1c | 8,767$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 8c | 2,206$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.69 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 4c | 2,102$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.11 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 22c | 1,816$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.35 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked No | 76c | 1,709$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.89 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…a558backed No | 57c | 1,557$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.23 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 39c | 1,377$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.1 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 20c | 1,279$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.71 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 17c | 1,162$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.86 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 79c | 1,000$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.95 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 45c | 850.2$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.95 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb124…6cdabacked Yes | 12c | 810$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 803.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 27c | 759.94$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.6 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6568…978ebacked Yes | 17c | 715.82$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 5c | 704.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2,281.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 39c | 648.42$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.79 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 50c | 557.63$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.48 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 72c | 460.27$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.3 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f3…787cbacked Yes | 17c | 450$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 436$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 71c | 425.84$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.26 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 36c | 416$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.78 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe858…5bc6backed Yes | 60c | 394.86$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 37c | 381.73$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.93 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 65c | 347.74$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.41 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ac…6d71backed Yes | 71c | 299.99$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f29…0a8cbacked Yes | 16c | 286.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked Yes | 56c | 249.63$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 4c | 245$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 232$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.1 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe5…33a4backed Yes | 56c | 224.66$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 15c | 220$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 33c | 216.7$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.38 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +9.8wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked Yes | 35c | 214.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 75c | 201$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…6ee3backed Yes | 44c | 200.56$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed No | 48c | 200$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.9 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…7cc3backed Yes | 72c | 196$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 44c | 185.87$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.29 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8070…8c6dbacked Yes | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 42c | 180$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb72…7902backed No | 44c | 180$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 22c | 173$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 48c | 170.57$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.31 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3387…c3f7backed No | 29c | 169.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.49 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4191…569fbacked Yes | 70c | 144.04$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e206backed Yes | 29c | 141.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9974…2840backed No | 66c | 138.66$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad80…eca5backed Yes | 40c | 121.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 29c | 117$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 71c | 114.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.21 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ef…5513backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffab…407ebacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…a907backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3c…ebcebacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec52…8e32backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…100cbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 60c | 96.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 26c | 95.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 37c | 92.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…31e2backed Yes | 76c | 91.59$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 56c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 82.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 65c | 75.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe57a…e196backed Yes | 44c | 72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e64…ade2backed Yes | 51c | 70.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b8ddbacked No | 51c | 68.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…2f49backed No | 43c | 66.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 21c | 65.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b5…d5c6backed No | 34c | 58.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 52c | 51.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x489a…fff2backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…5630backed Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…d1f0backed Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 79c | 49.37$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 79c | 48.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3c…8e0bbacked Yes | 44c | 43.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…b385backed Yes | 37c | 43.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…65abbacked No | 53c | 41.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…763abacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5056…d9b5backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…1e9fbacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed No | 29c | 39.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 63c | 39.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d9…615abacked Yes | 67c | 38.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 70c | 35.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 50c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…1e17backed Yes | 52c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?this page
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?Yes won
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?No won
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?No won
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.