AI · resolved market
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbed59a986769ba4fa495c1549b28b0280733fe376e2c2ab1e9787b7ff6f8fe2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 4c | 4,511$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.07 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed No | 7c | 4,219$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.07 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 3,226$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.42 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 30c | 1,867$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.55 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,677$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 64c | 1,669$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.13 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 79c | 1,560$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.21 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 37c | 1,234$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.8 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 28c | 999.95$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.49 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked No | 18c | 929.23$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.13 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 44c | 908$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked No | 69c | 896.99$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.82 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 886.2$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.55 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 40c | 844.14$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.66 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 61c | 713.55$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.61 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked No | 44c | 694.92$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.22 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 17c | 620.69$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 34c | 615.7$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.74 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 62c | 547.58$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 66c | 501.88$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.9 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 75c | 495.9$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.66 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 68c | 474.23$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.05 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2309…67c6backed Yes | 72c | 438.45$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 2c | 404.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 52 | 11.5%6 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9974…2840backed No | 69c | 387.33$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9771…19eabacked Yes | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 16c | 356.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 3c | 352.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 30c | 350$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 323$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.07 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 10c | 322.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 322.25$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed Yes | 76c | 313.09$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe858…5bc6backed Yes | 41c | 251.27$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -73%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed Yes | 77c | 249.03$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 6c | 237.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.19 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 67c | 237.71$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabc6…3a33backed Yes | 66c | 222.38$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a2…4763backed Yes | 76c | 220$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe5…33a4backed Yes | 67c | 215.01$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 59c | 212.45$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.82 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +9.8wins | +0.25per pick | 49cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed No | 5c | 208.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 69c | 205$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 22c | 195.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 21c | 174.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Yes | 76c | 160.37$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…3f0ebacked Yes | 70c | 157.85$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3e…5bc9backed No | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 67c | 145$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 75c | 140.94$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 70c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 76c | 140$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e8…bb5abacked No | 12c | 134.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…6ee3backed Yes | 52c | 130$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 72c | 126.02$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b5…d5c6backed Yes | 55c | 125.34$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 21c | 116$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 46c | 112.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed No | 68c | 112.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 65c | 108.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked No | 70c | 105$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.15 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 41c | 104$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 57c | 104$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…931dbacked No | 15c | 102.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde4…7bfdbacked Yes | 71c | 102.2$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…d714backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…c074backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fb…58e2backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…e0d7backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 22c | 97.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 75c | 94.52$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad80…eca5backed Yes | 57c | 91.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 25c | 91.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2,281.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…b169backed No | 48c | 83.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Yes | 57c | 82.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…7877backed Yes | 72c | 82.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked Yes | 75c | 77.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed Yes | 33c | 77.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x973f…72ccbacked No | 26c | 77.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 31c | 72.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…0df3backed No | 39c | 69.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…eef9backed Yes | 51c | 65.16$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514a…dad1backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 22c | 62.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 19c | 61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 31c | 57.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…b385backed Yes | 47c | 57.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e8…7b51backed No | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 55c | 52.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…16e9backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?this page
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?No won
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?No won
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?No won
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.