AI · resolved market
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a1f101051a321946e8dfabc64883570829aa510cca420c13b50ca7092cda26c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,227$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2,281.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 1c | 2,155$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…a558backed No | 73c | 483.14$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.29 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 448.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 416 | 7.5%31 W · 385 L | -25.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 78c | 287$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 6c | 262$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 158$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 122$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa222…7d3cbacked Yes | 34c | 119.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…d06fbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9630…4005backed Yes | 27c | 98.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53a3…e5afbacked Yes | 13c | 84.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ea…4d9fbacked Yes | 16c | 76.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 26c | 65.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…9a97backed No | 59c | 50.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d54…1d3ebacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…980fbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x288c…3250backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e1…8adfbacked No | 70c | 35.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500?this page
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?Yes won
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470?No won
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?No won
- Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1520?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.