TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$855,649
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$752,283

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $855,649 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 308 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d84…1344backed Yes9c42,373$3,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,649.326423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes17c24,100$4,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,03535631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2f…1a88backed Yes16c23,240$3,618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,618.121827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-29.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes9c22,144$1,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,932.9112629.4%37 W · 89 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes9c16,169$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.5321531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x409f…543abacked Yes0c12,054$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.051421.4%3 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-71.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c11,925$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.922742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc68b…f6eebacked Yes12c10,577$1,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,269.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick41cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes10c10,050$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.978530.6%26 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20d9…5490backed Yes17c8,271$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,372.355851.7%30 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+47.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes29c7,026$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.5319930.7%61 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefe…89c4backed Yes8c6,490$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes3c6,000$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19521525.1%54 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a76…53debacked Yes8c6,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4804940.8%20 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c4a…bdf8backed Yes14c6,000$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85570%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes4c5,759$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.2715523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes14c5,500$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74545843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c5,100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.53103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Yes11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5509139.6%36 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes16c5,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78022529.8%67 W · 158 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde7e…396bbacked Yes7c4,924$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.231315.4%2 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid+39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8521…c792backed Yes2c4,610$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.15862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick34cpaid+63%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2470…22e5backed Yes16c4,380$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x965d…32b3backed Yes2c4,316$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes3c4,287$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7944224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24e0…124abacked Yes2c4,193$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes24c4,161$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.177538.7%29 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed Yes11c4,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4405530.9%17 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+48.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes7c3,942$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.6628427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes10c3,905$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.5216041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x303e…c54abacked Yes7c3,781$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.2730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes3c3,618$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.482217.2%16 W · 205 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes10c3,587$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.9742120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a6…cbdabacked Yes8c3,162$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes21c3,122$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.425523.6%13 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes13c3,071$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.2538237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc01…d914backed Yes2c2,805$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.611020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-61%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No80c2,501$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.018763.2%55 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes15c2,500$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37534143.4%148 W · 193 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes1c2,500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.224769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8593…4668backed Yes8c2,500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002544%11 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+192.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8188…0667backed Yes18c2,439$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.021827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes6c2,391$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.013717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd599…9b82backed Yes10c2,386$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fc6…7306backed Yes6c2,350$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.36028.3%17 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x065f…a838backed Yes1c2,313$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.38966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+76.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb8ee…06c2backed Yes1c2,313$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec5d…f880backed Yes1c2,305$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6293…7c4cbacked Yes1c2,305$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ed…805bbacked Yes13c2,222$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes10c2,205$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.9628827.8%80 W · 208 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bcf…bb4dbacked Yes2c2,179$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.86560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+30.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b49…6c07backed Yes2c2,179$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07bf…fb79backed Yes2c2,158$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.53450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ab…0406backed Yes2c2,158$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0923…2a89backed Yes2c2,137$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.33837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd466…30fbbacked Yes2c2,084$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.511330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a54…4a03backed Yes22c2,002$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.24922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-64%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18022627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda71…799dbacked Yes3c2,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+29.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes18c2,000$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.3328750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f29…0a8cbacked Yes9c2,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300185.6%1 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.20per pick25cpaid-60.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8b76…9823backed Yes9c1,860$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.42326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-57.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c7b…d463backed Yes1c1,719$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.05419.8%4 W · 37 L+0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes3c1,650$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.253588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0475…ed7abacked Yes14c1,636$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2291827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes1c1,625$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.451469.6%14 W · 132 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Yes7c1,600$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1183444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c8e…d8fcbacked Yes7c1,571$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63f4…a4f3backed Yes15c1,512$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x523a…8e28backed Yes14c1,500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101650%8 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-14.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xffc6…7715backed Yes2c1,410$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80bc…f6f3backed Yes17c1,403$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2352910.3%3 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe65b…271bbacked Yes14c1,400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes6c1,382$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.424195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes8c1,338$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.6128126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x266e…17e5backed Yes21c1,329$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2781442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd242…e84dbacked Yes12c1,300$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1591145.5%5 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a8a…5c56backed Yes2c1,277$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed Yes15c1,276$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.3314147.5%67 W · 74 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb11…0d5ebacked Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007830.8%24 W · 54 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2188…7a8dbacked Yes16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016131.7%51 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes9c1,232$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.95588.6%5 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9138…0690backed Yes8c1,226$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.32817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c1,200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.14625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18b0…3bbdbacked Yes2c1,188$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c1,177$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1642311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes14c1,138$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.0612951.9%67 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8bf…01a4backed Yes2c1,136$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.72540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked No79c1,127$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.0216739.5%66 W · 101 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed Yes23c1,100$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502528%7 W · 18 L-5.0wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-54.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x302e…88ccbacked Yes12c1,091$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.029124.2%22 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes2c1,089$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.542036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5114…c160backed Yes2c1,072$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6d…58f4backed Yes2c1,072$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.69540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+54.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50b0…22dabacked Yes2c1,072$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d7…2743backed Yes2c1,062$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5654…b33ebacked Yes19c1,053$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002070%14 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+31.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.