TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xda71…799d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
83
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+29.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.5
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+150%+$30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$68
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+203%+$134.01
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$68
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$104
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+119.3%+$127.43
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+33.1%+$43.66
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+525%+$168
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$4.48
All 14 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 172.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+100%+$500
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$510Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$490
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Arizona Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$770Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$230
Spread: Houston Cougars (-3.5)backed Houston Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$470
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Houston Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$580Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$580
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 164.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$510Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$510
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies: O/U 137.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$480
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-4.5)backed UCLA Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,009Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,009.4
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 154.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$625Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$624.89
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Utah State Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.48
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones: O/U 146.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+100%+$500
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-4.5)backed Kentucky Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$455
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-7.5)backed Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+100%+$500
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers: O/U 147.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$510
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-63.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+47.9%+$6.48
Will Alex Kelloff be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.5
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+41%+$5.34
All 8 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-53.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweetslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+36.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennislast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ben Shelton Win ATP Montrealbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$6.4
Will Brandon Nakashima Win ATP Montrealbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT+46.4%+$6.34
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Pam Bondi be Trump's Attorney General?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$86
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Angelsbacked Los Angeles Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$620
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+150%+$25.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+25.4%+$121.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playoffsbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$376Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+25%+$93.92
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.