Tennis · resolved market
Will Brandon Nakashima Win ATP Montreal
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x381781b3f91caee63f287d9fe78705ac1baa461fbf26a0e06c24da9b533c7c1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,460
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,460 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 34c | 5,014$1,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,707.34 | 530 | 43%228 W · 302 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 64c | 3,313$2,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.42 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Yes | 15c | 1,322$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 271 | 51.3%139 W · 132 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 13c | 630.13$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.19 | 285 | 43.5%124 W · 161 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebc…89c8backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed Yes | 10c | 257.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 80c | 238.81$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 219.64$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes | 10c | 207.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 179$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Yes | 19c | 159.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 27c | 148.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 15c | 137$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 227 | 23.8%54 W · 173 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6c…618bbacked Yes | 32c | 114.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 74c | 109.8$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5141…7346backed Yes | 27c | 107.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 13c | 95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed Yes | 16c | 78.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 67.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4a…db2bbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 66c | 41.27$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…664ebacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b0…f655backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda71…799dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0c…6316backed No | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 77c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brandon Nakashima Win ATP Montrealthis page
- Will Alexander Zverev Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Arthur Fils Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Ben Shelton Win ATP MontrealYes won
- Will Cameron Norrie Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Casper Ruud Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Daniil Medvedev Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Felix Auger-Aliassime Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Grigor Dimitrov Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Jakub Mensik Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Jannik Sinner Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Jiri Lehecka Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Learner Tien Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Luciano Darderi Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Nuno Borges Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Rafael Jodar Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Roman Safiullin Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Tallon Griekspoor Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Taylor Fritz Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Tommy Paul Win ATP MontrealNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.