Tennis · resolved market
Will Rafael Jodar Win ATP Montreal
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53864e2144b15e1fe09bd6440e6a045fb46e352e6700b1d5dc898ecf4e7cdac9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe166…8f14backed Yes | 16c | 14,114$2,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,187.69 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 70c | 12,393$8,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,721.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc536…f086backed No | 78c | 7,076$5,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,556.72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a79…eedabacked No | 77c | 6,015$4,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1520…378fbacked No | 78c | 3,000$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.99 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 21c | 2,644$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.03 | 351 | 39.6%139 W · 212 L | -15.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Yes | 27c | 2,603$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 265 | 51.3%136 W · 129 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 23c | 2,176$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 595 | 53.8%320 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,788$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.77 | 530 | 43%228 W · 302 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed No | 67c | 1,500$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 60c | 1,370$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d22…827fbacked No | 77c | 999.98$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 17c | 849.8$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.58 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 16c | 642$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b8…0d4cbacked Yes | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…7819backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Yes | 38c | 550$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 280 | 42.9%120 W · 160 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4e…2004backed Yes | 17c | 508$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…11cebacked Yes | 18c | 492.57$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2760…03f3backed No | 60c | 478.83$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.38 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fab…3cabbacked Yes | 15c | 474$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 249 | 31.3%78 W · 171 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 23c | 463.6$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa34f…1cfabacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked No | 71c | 427.49$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.41 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 13c | 397$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.61 | 335 | 50.7%170 W · 165 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…0789backed Yes | 29c | 348.29$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 26c | 330$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f45…f101backed Yes | 14c | 326.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75b…42d1backed Yes | 27c | 324.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 21c | 320.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…1227backed Yes | 16c | 310$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17af…b7e4backed Yes | 30c | 253.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 293 | 48.5%142 W · 151 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 63c | 249.71$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…908ebacked Yes | 39c | 237.26$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…bbddbacked Yes | 16c | 218.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…409dbacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x270b…e632backed Yes | 16c | 208.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…52abbacked Yes | 10c | 206.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 195$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.85 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 76c | 178.56$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c3…75abbacked Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 156.57$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 128.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4271…3f6dbacked No | 79c | 126.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed No | 73c | 122.75$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142d…eda4backed Yes | 25c | 111.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked No | 79c | 107.75$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018e…5c3dbacked Yes | 19c | 105.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8080…8a7ebacked No | 79c | 101.33$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…55d1backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7114…6432backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa827…1d36backed Yes | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1e…ccc0backed Yes | 23c | 92.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 62c | 85$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 77.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ad…5403backed Yes | 21c | 76.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ff…4c16backed Yes | 19c | 51.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…69fbbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb5…6210backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…9e91backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 29c | 49.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d00…0121backed No | 78c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 45.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7057…d678backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdf…af9ebacked No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 20.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 19.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…30f7backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 60c | 17.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked No | 74c | 17.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rafael Jodar Win ATP Montrealthis page
- Will Alexander Zverev Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Arthur Fils Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Ben Shelton Win ATP MontrealYes won
- Will Brandon Nakashima Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Cameron Norrie Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Casper Ruud Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Daniil Medvedev Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Felix Auger-Aliassime Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Grigor Dimitrov Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Jakub Mensik Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Jannik Sinner Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Jiri Lehecka Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Learner Tien Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Luciano Darderi Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Nuno Borges Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Roman Safiullin Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Tallon Griekspoor Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Taylor Fritz Win ATP MontrealNo won
- Will Tommy Paul Win ATP MontrealNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.