Movies · resolved market
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74ef41e4b6c22da398d82066931e58bc598d463131f4dc648849747aa1723162
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb037…71f0backed No | 46c | 6,465$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 47c | 4,950$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,599.76 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 40c | 4,066$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612.06 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 52c | 3,544$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.76 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 62c | 3,239$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.61 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 51c | 3,061$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,489.08 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 2,910$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.08 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 48c | 2,182$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 44c | 1,656$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 29c | 1,585$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.59 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,336$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.48 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 70c | 1,228$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.37 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 59c | 1,152$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.06 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 57c | 1,112$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.02 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,091$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5a…78c7backed Yes | 64c | 1,030$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…1535backed Yes | 27c | 1,008$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.03 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x583e…0289backed Yes | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 71c | 992.74$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.62 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d8…b9d4backed Yes | 73c | 978.95$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 56c | 971.64$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.63 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 45c | 948.31$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.87 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 40c | 929.13$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.03 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed No | 49c | 848.85$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.92 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 838.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 44c | 809$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.96 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked No | 25c | 788.65$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 48c | 741.35$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.16 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 31c | 710.69$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.18 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed Yes | 60c | 672.17$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.17 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…abfbbacked Yes | 76c | 619.8$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.48 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 46c | 612.33$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.87 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Yes | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 74c | 596.3$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.83 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9b…a68cbacked Yes | 13c | 584.88$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.26 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 60c | 549.98$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.99 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 526.96$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.27 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed No | 42c | 515.42$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.35 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e12…7bd7backed Yes | 64c | 500$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e90…1c09backed Yes | 59c | 473.77$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f23…dc0cbacked Yes | 53c | 412.56$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 49c | 400$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 21c | 380$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed Yes | 71c | 377.84$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…3da3backed Yes | 68c | 370.7$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 48c | 361.17$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.17 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 36c | 339.66$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 44c | 336.12$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.48 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 54c | 331.7$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.88 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 41c | 314.51$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 35c | 302.7$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.74 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…5868backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 63c | 299.3$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.54 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 33c | 289.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -8.1wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 30c | 282.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.82 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 70c | 278.5$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.95 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 38c | 276.66$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.95 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…f0f0backed Yes | 74c | 213.83$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked No | 38c | 208$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.04 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 42c | 206$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +50%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed No | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -87%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 47c | 196.83$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.69 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94c…b5b5backed Yes | 65c | 190.57$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 26c | 190.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 16c | 187.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 59c | 185$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 180$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 45c | 178.05$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 65c | 167$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 33c | 162.93$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed No | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Yes | 46c | 158.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.02 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked Yes | 67c | 154.25$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed Yes | 68c | 149.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 27c | 147.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 56c | 147.32$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked No | 51c | 146.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.88 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 79c | 125.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed No | 39c | 125$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 35c | 114.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7a…1a97backed No | 38c | 111.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…2babbacked No | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 25c | 100.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…a810backed No | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a95…f368backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…2012backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda71…799dbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 59c | 99.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…ec61backed Yes | 70c | 91.66$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1536…7f40backed Yes | 49c | 89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 61c | 86.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97c7…37adbacked Yes | 53c | 84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5e…ff63backed Yes | 67c | 82.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 79.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed No | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?this page
- Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?No won
- Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?No won
- Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.