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Movies · resolved market

Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,134
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,138

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,134 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes16c5,549$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.6148028.5%137 W · 343 L-33.6wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes26c3,400$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8943423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd49b…bdf9backed No59c2,674$1,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.031822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-65%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes32c2,274$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.1817837.6%67 W · 111 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes45c1,616$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.3515358.8%90 W · 63 L+19.6wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+23.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5095…93eebacked No65c1,572$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$542.9230242.4%128 W · 174 L+21.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes2c1,350$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210914.7%16 W · 93 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-69.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes3c1,200$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.842696.3%17 W · 252 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-53.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x389a…397dbacked Yes35c951.06$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335283.6%1 W · 27 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick13cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No56c948.3$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.552142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed No57c869.82$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.842050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes47c811.94$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.4319347.2%91 W · 102 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f2f…b226backed Yes46c790.47$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.431435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No60c751.93$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.8513142.7%56 W · 75 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No58c692.81$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.642142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes45c669.44$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.85616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes9c653.35$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.824239.7%96 W · 146 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No67c636.41$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.7811040.9%45 W · 65 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked No53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2821330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes35c526.95$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.272536%9 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes5c391.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9913820.3%28 W · 110 L+0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid+27.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No62c354$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.0311245.5%51 W · 61 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No71c320.65$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0711236.6%41 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9214…a803backed Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1143243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No78c287.55$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.34843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No66c286.71$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.095324.5%13 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0957…77e8backed No62c276.66$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.411353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe78…c533backed Yes29c255$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0330436.2%110 W · 194 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe562…4fa9backed Yes14c248.7$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5327130.6%83 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c221$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.2210751.4%55 W · 52 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No69c217.9$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.5523230.6%71 W · 161 L-13.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes34c206.4$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.1888533.6%297 W · 588 L-76.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No56c206$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.883748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34d8…b9d4backed Yes64c205$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2482…67b1backed Yes30c200.98$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.759334.4%32 W · 61 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06db…5244backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick29cpaid-87%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes9c199.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-53.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes36c199.98$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.994139%16 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed Yes35c196.67$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.331827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-51.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes49c190.65$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.322917.2%5 W · 24 L-5.4wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-74.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x19db…7636backed Yes14c180$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.25646.4%26 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17fa…abfbbacked Yes35c170$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.71060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No71c162.93$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.473748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes15c159.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244623.9%11 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x789a…1ddabacked Yes48c156.25$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752123.8%5 W · 16 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick44cpaid-59.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf82f…8137backed Yes25c150$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374643.5%20 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No68c143.74$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465563.6%35 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf508…30a5backed Yes33c136.12$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.31855.6%10 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafa8…f8b9backed Yes27c135$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e39…352cbacked No73c125.24$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.614250%21 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x498f…ec61backed Yes40c118.78$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.183033.3%10 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87e8…b760backed Yes34c116.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406137.7%23 W · 38 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b55…7b1fbacked No74c110$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe497…84aabacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed Yes42c99.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9980%0 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d81…fe57backed Yes47c97.41$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.246451.6%33 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x158e…9b25backed Yes35c92$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04f6…311abacked No31c88.13$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.53944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x628a…6895backed No70c86.67$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+22.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e32…29c3backed Yes12c84.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dec…cefabacked Yes47c78.49$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.145042%21 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c35…2babbacked Yes47c77.59$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.47714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-79.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes33c70$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.99262%57 W · 35 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes21c69.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4413534.8%47 W · 88 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed Yes45c59.3$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f23…dc0cbacked No64c55.13$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.851546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes29c54.55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.616015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes20c53.31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.434047.5%19 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…d6d8backed Yes45c52.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.41944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed No53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.51250%6 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93b5…0f43backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a41…2c3ebacked No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e81…864bbacked No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7615…e395backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf212…a810backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0832…c3c1backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+43.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a2b…1dc4backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02d5…2fecbacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3e3…7e36backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No52c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.48351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d5c…0a95backed No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes44c29.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.063517.1%6 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5136…0e4fbacked No60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103959%23 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No66c24.35$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.42445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No71c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.385747.4%27 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc6d…b81fbacked No59c22$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x11a3…b269backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No60c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87156.3%40 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f49…d3d9backed Yes58c18.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No72c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.769053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbea2…2d33backed No78c16.6$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.651163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39ca…7605backed No69c15.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.813959%23 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No72c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9911485.1%97 W · 17 L+12.0wins+0.11per pick75cpaid+13.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.