Movies · resolved market
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60702ac60cb2348de94645749c6814248214c4d7823eececee56c43d7d0f53f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 5,549$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.61 | 480 | 28.5%137 W · 343 L | -33.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 26c | 3,400$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 59c | 2,674$1,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.03 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 32c | 2,274$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.18 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 45c | 1,616$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.35 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +19.6wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked No | 65c | 1,572$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.92 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | +21.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,350$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 269 | 6.3%17 W · 252 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 35c | 951.06$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 56c | 948.3$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed No | 57c | 869.82$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.84 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 47c | 811.94$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.43 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 46c | 790.47$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 60c | 751.93$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.85 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 58c | 692.81$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.64 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 45c | 669.44$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 9c | 653.35$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 242 | 39.7%96 W · 146 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 67c | 636.41$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.78 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked No | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 35c | 526.95$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.27 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 5c | 391.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 354$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.03 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 71c | 320.65$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.07 | 112 | 36.6%41 W · 71 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9214…a803backed Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 287.55$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 66c | 286.71$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 62c | 276.66$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 29c | 255$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 304 | 36.2%110 W · 194 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 14c | 248.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 221$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.22 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 217.9$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 232 | 30.6%71 W · 161 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 206.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 885 | 33.6%297 W · 588 L | -76.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 56c | 206$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.88 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34d8…b9d4backed Yes | 64c | 205$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 30c | 200.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…5244backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -87%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf56…ee5fbacked Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 36c | 199.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 35c | 196.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Yes | 49c | 190.65$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.32 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19db…7636backed Yes | 14c | 180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…abfbbacked Yes | 35c | 170$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 71c | 162.93$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes | 15c | 159.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 44cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…8137backed Yes | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 143.74$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf508…30a5backed Yes | 33c | 136.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa8…f8b9backed Yes | 27c | 135$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 73c | 125.24$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…ec61backed Yes | 40c | 118.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…b760backed Yes | 34c | 116.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…7b1fbacked No | 74c | 110$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Yes | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 47c | 97.41$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x158e…9b25backed Yes | 35c | 92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked No | 31c | 88.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628a…6895backed No | 70c | 86.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…29c3backed Yes | 12c | 84.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 47c | 78.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c35…2babbacked Yes | 47c | 77.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 21c | 69.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 45c | 59.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f23…dc0cbacked No | 64c | 55.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 54.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 20c | 53.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed Yes | 45c | 52.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…0f43backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a41…2c3ebacked No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…864bbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…e395backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…a810backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…c3c1backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…1dc4backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d5…2fecbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e3…7e36backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5c…0a95backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 44c | 29.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 66c | 24.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 71c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a3…b269backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f49…d3d9backed Yes | 58c | 18.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 78c | 16.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ca…7605backed No | 69c | 15.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 114 | 85.1%97 W · 17 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?this page
- Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?No won
- Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m?Yes won
- Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 19m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.