Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0649adf136bb4e7ff82d77fb7b4daf743bff0c15c7daee1b0f97a82151459546
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 39c | 1,601$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.58 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 46c | 729.99$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.6 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 500$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 29c | 471.02$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.87 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 30c | 363.58$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.8 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Yes | 74c | 336$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f2…f402backed Yes | 79c | 283.86$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 32c | 258.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 49c | 254$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.46 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8007…a8f4backed Yes | 71c | 228$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.12 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…a8f6backed Yes | 71c | 200$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 34c | 190.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd850…e26cbacked Yes | 63c | 157.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…5976backed Yes | 73c | 137$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf358…ab49backed No | 54c | 127$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 36c | 124.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 48c | 117.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.91 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +8.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2225…bee7backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked Yes | 72c | 97.39$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x065d…a672backed No | 15c | 71.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda71…799dbacked No | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…0c74backed Yes | 69c | 64.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1491…fd70backed No | 35c | 59.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…29b4backed No | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 49c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 69c | 40.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdd…dd27backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 44c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc31…3fe8backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…9292backed No | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 61cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 61c | 38.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 32c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 69c | 36.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 34.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb9…0754backed Yes | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 55cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38da…68c4backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ed…a8dabacked No | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 70c | 16.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 7 to August 14, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.