Middle East · resolved market
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2953e0ded8ee0d8f3b6284ac4f33a790f37c78b931c588466436e60089a6591
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,682,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,668,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,682,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 376 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 8c | 79,813$6,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,533.47 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 15c | 46,902$7,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,236.75 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 8c | 46,031$3,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,628.56 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 16c | 44,965$7,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,378.87 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 65c | 38,314$24,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,412.63 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x921f…3d70backed Yes | 18c | 29,385$5,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,417.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 18c | 26,509$4,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,787.49 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 23c | 25,704$5,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,952.62 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 2c | 25,324$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.26 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 7c | 24,626$1,668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,667.89 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 26c | 22,312$5,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,735.66 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 13c | 20,555$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.98 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 78c | 20,028$15,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,475.9 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 69c | 20,027$13,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,201.3 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 2c | 20,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 6c | 20,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 17c | 19,231$3,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,187.6 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 21c | 16,588$3,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,483.56 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 26c | 15,323$4,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,024.97 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 12c | 14,821$1,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,801.06 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb698…976abacked Yes | 0c | 14,408$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 57 | 12.3%7 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 17c | 13,323$2,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,316.05 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 70c | 12,232$8,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,615.22 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 80c | 11,388$9,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,283.18 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…26e2backed Yes | 7c | 11,000$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 4c | 10,660$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 13c | 10,500$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 6c | 10,413$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.78 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…1feabacked Yes | 27c | 8,572$2,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,316.45 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 6c | 7,824$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.76 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 7c | 7,643$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.49 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…1d08backed Yes | 25c | 7,486$1,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,871.51 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +795.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd15b…cf6dbacked Yes | 24c | 7,347$1,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,782.49 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 17c | 7,128$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.69 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 18c | 6,611$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.79 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 14c | 6,403$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.22 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 11c | 6,115$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.98 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.53 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked No | 25c | 6,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…e383backed Yes | 8c | 6,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…1b9bbacked Yes | 21c | 6,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,230 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9138…0690backed Yes | 6c | 6,000$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.99 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Yes | 23c | 5,768$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.66 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 19c | 5,328$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.72 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 1c | 5,154$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.54 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 22c | 5,000$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0eac…140abacked Yes | 14c | 5,000$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.99 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 34c | 4,497$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.47 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 17c | 4,250$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.69 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…79a5backed Yes | 24c | 4,194$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +217.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 13c | 4,060$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.4 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…b243backed Yes | 17c | 3,795$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.11 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed Yes | 1c | 3,774$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…8694backed Yes | 14c | 3,662$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…e17ebacked Yes | 17c | 3,618$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.98 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe323…8aa5backed Yes | 7c | 3,572$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 3,241$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 5c | 3,200$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.83 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 3,156$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.78 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 2c | 3,007$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 79c | 2,962$2,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.02 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -11.4wins | -0.20per pick | 67cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 16c | 2,873$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.58 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 19c | 2,839$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.36 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc741…87bfbacked Yes | 16c | 2,794$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 26c | 2,778$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 30c | 2,688$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.45 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…6a50backed Yes | 17c | 2,621$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 1c | 2,600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0a…139bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,471$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec55…a300backed Yes | 16c | 2,441$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 43c | 2,265$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.51 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc9…ac05backed Yes | 23c | 2,258$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.32 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…d9cebacked Yes | 15c | 2,240$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.57 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 25c | 2,239$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.87 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bee…56c4backed Yes | 19c | 2,239$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked No | 77c | 2,113$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.19 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | +11.7wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…309ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,980$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +497%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,903$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.65 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 15c | 1,880$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.49 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,875$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…fd1cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,862$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 8c | 1,813$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 75c | 1,805$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 18c | 1,700$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -11.0wins | -0.33per pick | 64cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…18f4backed Yes | 75c | 1,687$1,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…f5c0backed Yes | 13c | 1,658$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.79 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +9.1wins | +0.25per pick | 36cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x55b5…1ec0backed Yes | 21c | 1,643$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7a…ab88backed Yes | 10c | 1,633$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,620$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 77c | 1,599$1,228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.7 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked No | 78c | 1,510$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.1 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 2c | 1,447$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d2…88aebacked Yes | 26c | 1,443$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…179abacked Yes | 12c | 1,361$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,356$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb18…eda3backed Yes | 9c | 1,339$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +60%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…5039backed Yes | 48c | 1,326$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?this page
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.