Middle East · resolved market
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa48ee32a0cbe5bc1a48844bd14e1691701d3bf8f45f4dd8cb8d1d304561393b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,884,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,882,069
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,884,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,882 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 33c | 302,022$100,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100,011.25 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 55c | 170,996$94,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76,277.25 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 61c | 149,729$90,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,782.38 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6a…0b8cbacked Yes | 64c | 85,524$54,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,680.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.43per pick | 54cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 60c | 58,210$35,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,110.21 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…730cbacked No | 32c | 55,671$18,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,060.11 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 69c | 55,437$38,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,271.47 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 28c | 50,522$13,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,924.32 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 30c | 48,960$14,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,561.29 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…eb0bbacked No | 41c | 40,481$16,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,706.21 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 37,964$26,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,396.73 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbe97…6347backed Yes | 53c | 30,641$16,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,471.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 37cpaid | +222.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…dea6backed Yes | 64c | 30,094$19,261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,832.73 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 43c | 30,056$12,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,965.25 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 22c | 29,927$6,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,553.99 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f17…519ebacked Yes | 62c | 29,373$18,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,181.66 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 60c | 29,326$17,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,662.79 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 37c | 28,828$10,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,784.46 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed No | 38c | 27,714$10,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,622.92 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked No | 45c | 26,520$11,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,824.06 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…907dbacked No | 47c | 24,777$11,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,685.51 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -8.4wins | -0.31per pick | 57cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe541…d45dbacked Yes | 67c | 22,267$14,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,358.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 77c | 20,778$16,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,705.86 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 33c | 20,527$6,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,705.59 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 70c | 20,400$14,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,054.12 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 22c | 19,713$4,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,302.66 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed No | 30c | 18,801$5,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,582.44 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 29c | 18,745$5,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,478.18 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 30c | 18,024$5,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,340.28 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 31c | 17,272$5,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,344.76 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a33…3a4fbacked Yes | 59c | 16,752$9,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,793.07 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…882abacked No | 27c | 16,727$4,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,543.2 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 29c | 16,466$4,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,695.32 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 28c | 15,983$4,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,476.9 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 52c | 15,350$7,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,400 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c1…39e2backed No | 25c | 15,000$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 2c | 14,625$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.82 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed No | 18c | 14,078$2,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,474.16 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 32c | 14,000$4,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,545.58 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 67c | 13,987$9,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,658.48 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 49c | 13,901$6,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,835.8 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 33c | 13,814$4,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,588.08 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 17c | 13,159$2,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,236.98 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 28c | 13,058$3,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,629.88 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked No | 33c | 13,031$4,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,242.28 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked Yes | 77c | 12,839$9,856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,982.27 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 40c | 12,579$5,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,032.54 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…033abacked Yes | 71c | 12,128$8,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,562.69 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61e7…6e8bbacked No | 42c | 11,905$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95bf…e00bbacked Yes | 74c | 11,519$8,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,018.61 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked No | 65c | 11,285$7,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,312.32 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 37c | 11,269$4,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,216.04 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde6f…d004backed No | 36c | 11,120$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 25cpaid | +231.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 55c | 11,006$6,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,938.16 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf192…6ee2backed Yes | 74c | 10,793$7,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,817.8 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 50c | 10,744$5,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,413.74 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…0c28backed Yes | 57c | 10,000$5,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,260 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 18c | 10,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 60c | 9,907$5,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,012.03 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…3b6cbacked Yes | 66c | 9,722$6,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,328.2 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 67c | 9,580$6,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,184.8 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked Yes | 38c | 9,456$3,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,869.58 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 72c | 9,400$6,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600.54 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be8…3c35backed No | 38c | 9,365$3,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 21c | 9,321$1,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,955.78 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 74c | 9,308$6,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,408.45 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 20c | 9,238$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.63 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2e…e1b2backed Yes | 78c | 9,028$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,028.46 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4728…6426backed Yes | 74c | 8,888$6,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,333.1 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ca…d7cebacked Yes | 56c | 8,810$4,970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,839.61 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 80c | 8,789$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,789.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked No | 36c | 8,389$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.99 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fca…05bcbacked No | 63c | 8,282$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 40c | 8,117$3,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,233.1 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed No | 56c | 8,035$4,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,464.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 63c | 8,000$5,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,969.99 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…51f9backed Yes | 79c | 7,562$5,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 55c | 7,503$4,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,376.59 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 73c | 7,327$5,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.26 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d41…6acabacked Yes | 63c | 7,320$4,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,734.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 43c | 7,283$3,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,171.76 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…0e97backed No | 64c | 7,213$4,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,629.29 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed No | 59c | 7,193$4,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,244.02 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked No | 20c | 7,080$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.87 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf567…d3efbacked Yes | 35c | 7,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,550 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +4.1wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…26e1backed No | 42c | 7,000$2,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,930 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 52c | 6,913$3,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,618.72 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 20c | 6,783$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.54 | 156 | 29.5%46 W · 110 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed No | 45c | 6,667$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb749…cd19backed No | 56c | 6,602$3,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,719 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1597…d74fbacked Yes | 79c | 6,290$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…c7bdbacked No | 26c | 6,232$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.22 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 33c | 6,100$2,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,042 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 25c | 6,096$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.98 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…c18bbacked Yes | 66c | 6,065$4,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045.44 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +172.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 59c | 6,009$3,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,483.15 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…a926backed No | 41c | 6,000$2,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,444.04 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed No | 55c | 5,923$3,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,286.65 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdccb…a7a0backed No | 35c | 5,910$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.3 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff72…cdaabacked No | 39c | 5,703$2,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,229.99 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?this page
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.