Middle East · resolved market

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x876047c0df88886ddbe468fe811bc75a667da45a552d798e626ecfc5c60d52d9

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 15, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,308,232
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,534,420

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,308,232 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 627 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfba1…1733backed Yes	0c	1,270,000$1,270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,270	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa50e…583ebacked Yes	0c	900,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	34cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf457…ac4ebacked Yes	0c	505,457$505 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.46	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes	9c	230,437$21,774 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21,773.7	489	23.5%115 W · 374 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked Yes	4c	197,883$7,768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,768.48	30	20%6 W · 24 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-55%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes	10c	187,703$17,959 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17,958.64	62	38.7%24 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes	11c	180,629$19,087 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,086.97	356	31.7%113 W · 243 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	31cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78e7…2c77backed Yes	0c	155,000$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes	7c	133,404$9,967 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,966.59	175	30.9%54 W · 121 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes	12c	129,779$15,443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,442.78	138	23.2%32 W · 106 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes	0c	124,000$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.8	81	50.6%41 W · 40 L	+8.5wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes	10c	117,873$11,797 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,797.14	142	28.2%40 W · 102 L	+9.5wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+34%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	1c	116,622$607 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$607.16	310	3.9%12 W · 298 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes	9c	115,394$10,158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,158.31	215	25.1%54 W · 161 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked Yes	11c	113,386$12,752 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,751.82	166	38.6%64 W · 102 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8fb…19dcbacked Yes	0c	110,690$394 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xab12…3683backed Yes	0c	100,508$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	24	25%6 W · 18 L	+3.4wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	+656.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes	13c	96,015$12,182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,181.65	161	25.5%41 W · 120 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed Yes	8c	94,106$7,089 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,088.65	113	23.9%27 W · 86 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes	11c	81,217$9,121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,121.07	134	41.8%56 W · 78 L	+6.7wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c12…79d9backed Yes	0c	75,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb119…8d46backed Yes	11c	73,285$7,929 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,928.71	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a7b8backed Yes	9c	60,711$5,627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,626.75	110	38.2%42 W · 68 L	+9.0wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	10c	59,794$5,904 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,903.52	423	29.1%123 W · 300 L	+14.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	-12%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6ce…271dbacked Yes	0c	53,920$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.38	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9078…83c7backed Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	+235.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x396f…7f78backed Yes	3c	44,908$1,507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,507.19	47	38.3%18 W · 29 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd46…4c7dbacked Yes	7c	42,169$2,920 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,920	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fa…aeecbacked Yes	4c	40,780$1,608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,607.97	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes	12c	40,577$4,678 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,677.86	165	26.1%43 W · 122 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeda0…8c38backed Yes	1c	38,201$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes	9c	37,222$3,429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,428.77	165	53.9%89 W · 76 L	+7.6wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x515e…8309backed No	79c	36,072$28,535 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,536.93	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed Yes	6c	34,149$2,103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,103.31	287	34.5%99 W · 188 L	+21.3wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes	8c	33,958$2,792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,791.9	225	29.8%67 W · 158 L	-8.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69a4…7d7ebacked Yes	0c	33,333$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed Yes	1c	32,964$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.11	114	6.1%7 W · 107 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes	8c	31,396$2,602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,601.98	50	14%7 W · 43 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x343e…50b3backed Yes	0c	31,250$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes	7c	31,131$2,186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,186.39	126	50.8%64 W · 62 L	+11.3wins	+0.09per pick	42cpaid	+22.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes	2c	31,029$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$476.79	83	39.8%33 W · 50 L	+5.0wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes	5c	30,715$1,413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,413.36	160	41.9%67 W · 93 L	+12.3wins	+0.08per pick	34cpaid	+67.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes	14c	30,641$4,288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,287.94	103	27.2%28 W · 75 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	9c	30,174$2,676 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,676.04	359	21.4%77 W · 282 L	-23.8wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes	0c	29,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6418…730cbacked Yes	7c	29,426$2,205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,205	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	+5.7wins	+0.11per pick	34cpaid	+75.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x466a…c444backed Yes	9c	29,312$2,529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,528.74	48	20.8%10 W · 38 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes	7c	28,552$2,092 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,091.69	126	34.9%44 W · 82 L	+8.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes	11c	28,211$3,216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,215.88	136	17.6%24 W · 112 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd9…d4ecbacked Yes	3c	26,718$726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$726	33	3%1 W · 32 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes	1c	25,816$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.73	229	27.1%62 W · 167 L	-12.8wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-43%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Yes	0c	25,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	38	60.5%23 W · 15 L	+6.0wins	+0.16per pick	45cpaid	+51.8%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes	1c	23,815$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.99	57	36.8%21 W · 36 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfae…9dedbacked Yes	0c	23,803$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	20	5%1 W · 19 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	2cpaid	+108.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes	10c	23,469$2,309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,308.68	96	47.9%46 W · 50 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	40cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9970…09bebacked Yes	23c	22,909$5,201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,200.75	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes	21c	22,840$4,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,699.76	353	47%166 W · 187 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4568…d9f6backed Yes	13c	21,908$2,848 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,848.07	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes	8c	21,631$1,664 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,663.61	223	33.6%75 W · 148 L	+9.8wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62f8…2928backed Yes	6c	21,070$1,178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,178.13	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes	12c	20,026$2,464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,463.67	54	29.6%16 W · 38 L	-6.1wins	-0.11per pick	41cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc828…dbfabacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x55f6…8fbebacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43ec…afefbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-73%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes	10c	19,977$1,910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,909.63	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes	11c	19,359$2,121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,120.94	208	23.1%48 W · 160 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes	5c	18,668$969 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$969.39	442	24.4%108 W · 334 L	+22.2wins	+0.05per pick	19cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0d5…c665backed Yes	6c	18,501$1,161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,160.62	40	57.5%23 W · 17 L	+4.5wins	+0.11per pick	46cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes	1c	17,450$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.83	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-36%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d41…e3ddbacked Yes	0c	17,183$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes	11c	17,090$1,879 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,879	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+2.3wins	+0.15per pick	25cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes	14c	16,306$2,349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,349.02	80	45%36 W · 44 L	+6.0wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc881…b071backed Yes	4c	16,000$641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$641.2	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+2.4wins	+0.16per pick	44cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	15,232$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.6	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+81.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a98…1b92backed Yes	12c	15,203$1,873 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,872.8	168	31%52 W · 116 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes	2c	15,153$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.3	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e96…d932backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+2.3wins	+0.21per pick	7cpaid	+409.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x128e…abfabacked Yes	0c	15,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x606f…1083backed Yes	2c	14,785$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.86	56	46.4%26 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes	9c	14,630$1,299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,299.24	284	27.8%79 W · 205 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032a…cf07backed Yes	0c	14,469$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.75	50	0%0 W · 50 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbc72…b99abacked Yes	1c	14,125$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	+3.9wins	+0.16per pick	17cpaid	+277.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed Yes	6c	13,791$783 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$782.83	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.13per pick	40cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes	0c	13,620$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	103	13.6%14 W · 89 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-23%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes	6c	13,616$862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$861.63	154	34.4%53 W · 101 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes	14c	13,467$1,875 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,874.57	138	50.7%70 W · 68 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No	77c	13,386$10,249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,137.31	276	43.5%120 W · 156 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab19…4876backed Yes	5c	12,593$668 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$667.8	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-6.0wins	-0.15per pick	49cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x997d…5d15backed Yes	6c	12,557$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$737.28	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-2.8wins	-0.17per pick	30cpaid	-81.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe49d…3b8fbacked Yes	0c	12,550$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.55	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.24per pick	9cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b67…b814backed Yes	16c	12,071$1,875 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,874.62	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	41cpaid	+117.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c94…00d0backed Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc967…b5b9backed Yes	17c	11,943$1,995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,994.75	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+2.6wins	+0.29per pick	27cpaid	+147.7%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x73e3…3239backed Yes	8c	11,887$904 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$904.03	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef9f…8924backed Yes	5c	11,776$590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$590.44	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf87…2974backed Yes	1c	11,670$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.43	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.18per pick	7cpaid	+1,808.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9f3…d6ddbacked Yes	4c	11,647$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.29	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes	8c	11,587$894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$893.94	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	6cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae86…6e6abacked Yes	17c	11,390$1,947 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,947.08	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes	5c	11,363$522 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.35	362	27.9%101 W · 261 L	+11.6wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event