Middle East · resolved market
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f53ea148368f2ec8cb263ad2604abcab2ecfd1e6c3b55b50cc50fdd19ca76be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 227 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 64c | 10,694$6,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,817.04 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0652…9134backed No | 39c | 7,545$2,973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,973.35 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -9.9wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…9ffdbacked Yes | 62c | 7,072$4,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,693.54 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 45c | 6,589$2,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,994.12 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…eb0bbacked No | 47c | 6,521$3,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,073.44 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked No | 37c | 6,299$2,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,311.05 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…2e11backed Yes | 67c | 6,078$4,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,996.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2132…7657backed No | 23c | 6,029$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.96 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked No | 58c | 5,214$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328d…f7a9backed Yes | 61c | 5,023$3,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,936.17 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…ec26backed Yes | 55c | 3,849$2,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.9 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +5.4wins | +0.42per pick | 43cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 42c | 3,692$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.31 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…d061backed No | 39c | 3,618$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 53c | 3,023$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.44 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed No | 32c | 2,703$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.38 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 43c | 2,393$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 58c | 2,358$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.44 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 73c | 2,022$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.96 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 47c | 1,827$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.85 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 47c | 1,721$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.06 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 41c | 1,514$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.96 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…32afbacked Yes | 48c | 1,463$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.71 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 74c | 1,400$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…2680backed Yes | 74c | 1,360$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 22c | 1,200$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 162 | 31.5%51 W · 111 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6574…3230backed Yes | 51c | 1,195$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.89 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…d73cbacked No | 42c | 1,180$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -5.3wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 48c | 1,134$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.48 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 32c | 1,122$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.73 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 46c | 1,076$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.59 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 80c | 1,032$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.67 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 67c | 1,000$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.24 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…20fbbacked Yes | 63c | 951.69$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 35c | 900$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.1 | 185 | 31.9%59 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes | 60c | 900$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 44c | 890.6$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.72 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0551…3d39backed Yes | 58c | 863.64$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.35 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 31c | 863.35$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.35 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 33c | 840.05$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.52 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked No | 42c | 826.53$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 66c | 804.99$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.8 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53d3…ba87backed Yes | 55c | 799.99$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 45c | 727$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.85 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 49c | 716.25$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.39 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…51f9backed Yes | 73c | 710$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 19c | 705.75$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.09 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 68c | 700$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.05 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 680.44$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 47c | 654.99$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.92 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Yes | 71c | 635.77$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 37cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x100a…0919backed Yes | 64c | 621.9$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.88 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 58c | 605$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.6 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 49c | 598.25$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.07 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 43c | 580$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.4 | 171 | 29.2%50 W · 121 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…8b84backed Yes | 72c | 566.51$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.39 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…aa36backed No | 54c | 556.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 545.85$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…051ebacked Yes | 63c | 519.99$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.4 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 60c | 514$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.6 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…f35cbacked Yes | 58c | 500.1$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.96 | 186 | 39.8%74 W · 112 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c5…c20abacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 40c | 493.65$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.72 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…1077backed Yes | 69c | 459.46$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.74 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 63c | 434.23$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.84 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed Yes | 58c | 430.1$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.64 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 68c | 427$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 40c | 424.07$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.85 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 51c | 419.83$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.11 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ee…008cbacked Yes | 48c | 412.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.93 | 100 | 23%23 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed No | 41c | 410.28$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.71 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe15e…d4f8backed Yes | 68c | 399.99$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef7a…db70backed No | 39c | 389.53$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.85 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 68c | 389.4$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.58 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1210backed No | 36c | 385.95$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.78 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -9.0wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 38c | 380$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.4 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…3a1bbacked No | 36c | 356.88$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.48 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…f88ebacked No | 39c | 343.74$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.65 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffe1…474abacked Yes | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6413…ab24backed No | 35c | 279.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 11c | 277.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16af…12a5backed Yes | 69c | 274.06$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 45c | 269.31$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.48 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a8…9c50backed Yes | 59c | 257.41$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +6.7wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd588…cec0backed Yes | 57c | 255.27$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.77 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 42c | 254.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.05 | 175 | 30.9%54 W · 121 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…36cabacked No | 32c | 250.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed Yes | 68c | 235$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.2 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b3…c90bbacked No | 46c | 228.52$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb069…0e1cbacked No | 48c | 208.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…ef84backed No | 53c | 207.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 26c | 200.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 200.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9366…a9f6backed No | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…78b9backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd262…c312backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa6…3e62backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 313 | 44.1%138 W · 175 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…c1bcbacked Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?this page
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.