Middle East · resolved market
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb2e7dd21dd889b9b56447857f03ea6188ebcef50599c3c1556c2f9141772d7bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,501,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,383,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,501,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 356 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 0c | 201,790$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.8 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 8c | 183,852$15,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,309.19 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 8c | 125,555$10,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,253.94 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff1…7234backed Yes | 0c | 110,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 13c | 77,752$10,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,158 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 4c | 58,661$2,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,229.74 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 12c | 45,243$5,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,208.68 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 13c | 35,899$4,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,719.69 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 5c | 35,785$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.61 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 8c | 33,691$2,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,573.84 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab12…3683backed Yes | 15c | 32,553$4,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,732.62 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +656.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 6c | 28,084$1,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,761.08 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 10c | 26,500$2,618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,617.7 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 17c | 24,616$4,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,228.85 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…3239backed Yes | 19c | 24,210$4,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,545.06 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…f2d9backed Yes | 5c | 23,842$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 6c | 22,000$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.46 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 2c | 20,400$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 9c | 19,787$1,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710.43 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…60c2backed Yes | 8c | 19,698$1,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,537.88 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 5c | 15,678$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.85 | 208 | 23.1%48 W · 160 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 9c | 15,443$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.08 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 3c | 15,000$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.94 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 15c | 13,834$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016.76 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed Yes | 5c | 12,931$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.27 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 11c | 12,469$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.87 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed Yes | 2c | 12,263$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.93 | 76 | 13.2%10 W · 66 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 4c | 11,787$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.39 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…a7c8backed Yes | 10c | 11,513$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 10cpaid | +238%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 15c | 9,712$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.09 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 16c | 9,552$1,553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,552.72 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 16c | 9,053$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…9098backed Yes | 10c | 9,000$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 16c | 8,765$1,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.51 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 1c | 8,274$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked Yes | 3c | 8,265$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.57 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 3c | 7,708$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.02 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 17c | 7,471$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.92 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…309ebacked Yes | 9c | 7,311$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.08 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +497%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 9c | 7,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8f…da6fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,774$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 4c | 6,666$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.8 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5b…26e2backed Yes | 2c | 6,346$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.07 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 1c | 6,204$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.73 | 114 | 6.1%7 W · 107 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef7…85ecbacked Yes | 4c | 5,933$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.66 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +9.7wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +186.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked Yes | 7c | 5,930$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.22 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 4c | 5,700$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 16c | 5,553$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.12 | 306 | 49%150 W · 156 L | +77.8wins | +0.25per pick | 24cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 76+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 18c | 5,114$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.58 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…4268backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.6 | 74 | 21.6%16 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 16c | 5,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc9…ac05backed Yes | 9c | 4,823$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.9 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 13c | 4,641$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed Yes | 2c | 4,348$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked Yes | 21c | 4,137$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e84…5432backed Yes | 6c | 4,131$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 18c | 4,105$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.02 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…b99abacked Yes | 7c | 4,000$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.32 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +277.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 18c | 4,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.99 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes | 5c | 3,914$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 9c | 3,598$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.88 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 18c | 3,568$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.23 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 12c | 3,520$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.5 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 3,316$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.19 | 118 | 18.6%22 W · 96 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 4c | 3,300$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.06 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 8c | 3,101$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.93 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 16c | 3,033$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.78 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…946dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 2,800$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,556$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.25 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…84f6backed Yes | 29c | 2,450$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.44 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a638backed Yes | 6c | 2,407$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…01d6backed Yes | 4c | 2,315$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 14c | 2,300$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.98 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 76c | 2,253$1,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.64 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 17c | 2,194$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.3 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa53e…93e6backed Yes | 6c | 2,144$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +215.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 8c | 2,101$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.25 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,094$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.83 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…d52bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,041$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe613…540ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 1,996$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.27 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,953$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdb…9080backed Yes | 8c | 1,929$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…051ebacked Yes | 30c | 1,906$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 1c | 1,707$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25a7…8b7cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,618$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.42 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 12c | 1,547$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.26 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 4c | 1,520$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.33 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed Yes | 4c | 1,510$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 78c | 1,500$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 15c | 1,500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,483$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa893…60a5backed Yes | 3c | 1,464$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 3c | 1,443$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?this page
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.