Middle East · resolved market
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54644fe42bf2db082bd02694ba14f6acd0b610cf0559287166933523cef6c47e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,586,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,679,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,586,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 695 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 34c | 68,047$23,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,758.13 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe36f…cd91backed Yes | 43c | 58,678$25,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,231.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 37c | 30,174$11,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,029.73 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15b…38afbacked Yes | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 10c | 28,338$2,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,881.65 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 58c | 27,768$16,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,693.08 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 56c | 27,553$15,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,142.96 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 59c | 25,878$15,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,376.83 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 5c | 25,050$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.5 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…6f22backed Yes | 66c | 25,000$16,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,600 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e9…8f85backed No | 57c | 20,000$11,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,600 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 2c | 19,936$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.19 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 22c | 18,005$3,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,925.7 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe541…d45dbacked Yes | 43c | 17,777$7,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,636.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 44c | 17,704$7,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,843.43 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 23c | 17,071$3,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,873.27 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 11c | 16,454$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,862.81 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 59c | 15,133$8,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,971.88 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 57c | 15,000$8,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,450 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28aa…8f75backed No | 56c | 14,794$8,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,545.87 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 4c | 14,630$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.65 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 40c | 14,182$5,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,532.3 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 3c | 14,080$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.66 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 5c | 14,000$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.3 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes | 26c | 12,166$3,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,214.24 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…1d08backed Yes | 6c | 11,465$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.69 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +795.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed No | 52c | 11,460$5,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,470.19 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Yes | 66c | 11,000$7,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,260 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,305$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,030$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9561…5497backed Yes | 7c | 10,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 78c | 9,983$7,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,218.83 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…05ecbacked No | 75c | 9,839$7,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,415.66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe162…8a81backed Yes | 3c | 9,518$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.52 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…93eabacked No | 53c | 8,475$4,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,983.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab0…9578backed Yes | 10c | 7,252$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 50c | 6,961$3,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,456.87 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3c…5eeabacked No | 36c | 6,837$2,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,407.22 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 6,830$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.9 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 7c | 6,812$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.98 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked No | 54c | 6,614$3,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,060.24 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…a0efbacked Yes | 24c | 6,400$1,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe18…2c1bbacked No | 45c | 6,102$2,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,360.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 71c | 5,864$4,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,676.51 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57dc…414bbacked Yes | 59c | 5,650$3,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,340.44 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 7c | 5,555$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.85 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 49c | 5,475$2,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,657.06 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 54c | 5,097$2,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,353.43 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 7c | 5,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…6cd3backed Yes | 57c | 4,910$2,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,798.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 5c | 4,521$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.11 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 62c | 4,379$2,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.14 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 44c | 4,244$1,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,884.48 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…179abacked Yes | 7c | 4,200$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked No | 36c | 4,167$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,666.66 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb5…72d7backed No | 77c | 4,116$3,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…0782backed No | 52c | 3,839$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Yes | 34c | 3,815$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.14 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No | 48c | 3,714$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,936.17 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +8.4wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +48%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 47c | 3,695$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,754.33 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 48c | 3,682$1,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.04 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…c5adbacked No | 55c | 3,664$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.29 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.34per pick | 44cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 3c | 3,655$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.03 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 73c | 3,479$2,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.9 | 132 | 50%66 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed No | 22c | 3,413$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,662.61 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 62c | 3,300$2,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,061 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeed…1d71backed Yes | 14c | 3,124$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.75 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 34c | 3,078$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024.26 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9297…0068backed No | 57c | 3,000$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x396c…4498backed Yes | 15c | 3,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…4fcfbacked Yes | 21c | 3,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.27 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes | 51c | 3,000$1,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544.97 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc741…87bfbacked Yes | 5c | 2,820$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…1540backed Yes | 63c | 2,730$1,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.45 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.8wins | +0.26per pick | 42cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 55c | 2,669$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.79 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…caaabacked No | 58c | 2,625$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.95 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +6.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbb…3f66backed No | 47c | 2,600$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +61%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 70c | 2,457$1,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.5 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ef…ddcbbacked Yes | 42c | 2,381$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…b2febacked Yes | 19c | 2,247$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…25a8backed No | 45c | 2,151$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 35c | 2,141$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.97 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1682…26cabacked No | 41c | 2,114$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.82 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4310…cd60backed No | 55c | 2,085$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x654a…cc32backed No | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 3c | 2,031$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,999$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.5 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -15.2wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked No | 61c | 1,998$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.88 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee65…5067backed Yes | 52c | 1,982$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,037.86 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…b0cabacked No | 55c | 1,900$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$855 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fda…6c62backed Yes | 5c | 1,812$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 49c | 1,804$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.15 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb09…738dbacked Yes | 66c | 1,802$1,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…96f1backed No | 38c | 1,800$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +165.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 51c | 1,766$906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.1 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa06d…5af9backed No | 56c | 1,714$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.79 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?this page
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.