Middle East · resolved market
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb03509e2e8b492b3ff06da25ba298dd86cb94356995487405e6c98404da5d961
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,127,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,073,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,127,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 352 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdc5…afc9backed Yes | 0c | 337,240$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.58 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +251%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 5c | 45,082$2,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,454.43 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c1…39e2backed No | 77c | 38,561$29,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,938.2 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 5c | 30,661$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.03 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 15c | 26,248$3,812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,811.99 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 18c | 20,200$3,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,632.08 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 10c | 17,033$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690.3 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 12c | 13,764$1,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,698.09 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 6c | 12,700$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 23c | 12,142$2,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,790.82 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…e0c5backed Yes | 3c | 11,746$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.95 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 5c | 10,796$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.8 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 23c | 10,563$2,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,377.61 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.44 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f9…1d08backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +795.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 24c | 8,969$2,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,154.66 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 26c | 7,895$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.76 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 17c | 7,574$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.04 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed Yes | 31c | 6,721$2,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,057.32 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 30c | 6,650$1,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,993.7 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked Yes | 32c | 6,111$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,980.9 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 12c | 6,046$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.23 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eac…140abacked Yes | 7c | 6,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 47c | 5,823$2,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,732.5 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…e17ebacked Yes | 39c | 5,449$2,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,124.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53c…8cbfbacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked Yes | 13c | 4,995$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.38 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 76c | 4,537$3,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.31 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,316$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.44 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 75c | 4,153$3,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.33 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 41c | 4,125$1,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,691.18 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 34c | 3,884$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.7 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 3,776$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.46 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,687$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc13c…a202backed Yes | 43c | 3,471$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 19c | 3,451$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.17 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 28c | 3,446$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.07 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 24c | 3,247$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.17 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 12c | 3,182$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.54 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff8…5fd6backed Yes | 4c | 3,170$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.12 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 21cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c66…44f3backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…45d6backed Yes | 18c | 3,000$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…0782backed No | 68c | 2,945$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 2,871$1,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.34 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 24c | 2,793$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.05 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked Yes | 35c | 2,592$911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.31 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 25c | 2,510$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.14 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 30c | 2,501$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.53 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 19c | 2,464$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.08 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaa…c521backed Yes | 43c | 2,334$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +269.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 5c | 2,329$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.16 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed Yes | 14c | 2,300$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 9c | 2,277$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.37 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 65c | 2,221$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 20c | 2,113$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.29 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…be6dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,100$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c15…944dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +812.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…b99abacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +277.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…d92dbacked No | 79c | 2,000$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.24 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 13c | 1,950$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 1c | 1,900$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 159 | 6.9%11 W · 148 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…d6dbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,866$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.08 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a01…7c0abacked Yes | 23c | 1,750$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.4 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,665$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,610$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 38c | 1,513$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.04 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aae…36abbacked Yes | 28c | 1,497$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 73c | 1,440$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.98 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 13c | 1,423$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.01 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…acf2backed No | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.33 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 52c | 1,210$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.2 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6a…d9c7backed Yes | 17c | 1,195$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 33c | 1,190$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.99 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,185$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.4 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 72c | 1,154$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…f2d9backed Yes | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…7147backed No | 74c | 1,100$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 43c | 1,077$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.66 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 2c | 1,058$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc561…fa80backed No | 67c | 1,020$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.34 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…4d35backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db2…3ce5backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…1b02backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…d9cebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…5039backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d4…db6cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 21c | 999.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…3654backed No | 77c | 981.88$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…eef9backed Yes | 4c | 970$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 74c | 950.33$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.33 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d02…7ff4backed No | 73c | 929.34$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…aa36backed No | 62c | 916.07$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.75 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16af…12a5backed Yes | 14c | 900$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9916…d6d8backed Yes | 34c | 899.99$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 75c | 874.73$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.27 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes | 33c | 872.41$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.63 | 201 | 43.3%87 W · 114 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?this page
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.