Middle East · resolved market
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c0e75027a5561ea72a0776b00086be32fb4af8e758d26be217ac6c9efcdadf9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,127,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,824,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,127,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdc5…afc9backed Yes | 0c | 2,500,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +251%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 1c | 183,739$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,074.44 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 1c | 84,605$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.6 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…1ebdbacked Yes | 3c | 78,025$2,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,429.1 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 7cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 5c | 72,420$3,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,889.27 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 5c | 56,267$3,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,066.23 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 5c | 44,939$2,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,429.2 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed Yes | 4c | 35,220$1,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,424.37 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…276fbacked Yes | 5c | 33,235$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.02 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 13c | 30,661$4,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,007.73 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…3d56backed Yes | 7c | 27,312$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +244.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 2c | 26,914$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.57 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacb…90cbbacked Yes | 2c | 20,082$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.9 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ce…9f80backed Yes | 2c | 18,991$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 5c | 18,417$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.95 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 17,140$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5287…3a16backed Yes | 11c | 16,064$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.04 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +8.1wins | +0.58per pick | 35cpaid | +209.2%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 4c | 15,839$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.01 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 4c | 15,414$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.97 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 4c | 14,574$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.65 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe823…2a61backed Yes | 3c | 14,364$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 7c | 13,718$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.24 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 6c | 12,511$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.8 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 12,078$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.31 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f3…d6ddbacked Yes | 4c | 12,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…5a9cbacked Yes | 2c | 10,330$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 4c | 10,000$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.31 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed Yes | 1c | 9,315$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 3c | 9,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 3c | 8,777$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.05 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 0c | 8,530$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed Yes | 6c | 8,315$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.52 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff8…5fd6backed Yes | 2c | 7,200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 21cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 8c | 6,952$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.57 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 9c | 6,851$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.06 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -7.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0099…386ebacked Yes | 7c | 6,727$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.64 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Yes | 10c | 6,018$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.41 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…548ebacked Yes | 9c | 5,682$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…309ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,585$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.89 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +497%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae86…6e6abacked Yes | 11c | 5,414$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 1c | 5,300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 242 | 24.4%59 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,227$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…909dbacked Yes | 6c | 5,153$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.6 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +116.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 3c | 5,000$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.99 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fea1backed Yes | 13c | 4,644$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.72 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,506$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.81 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 2c | 4,465$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 2c | 4,278$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.35 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 9c | 4,160$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.94 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x127b…afa7backed Yes | 1c | 3,849$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 9cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,714$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.99 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…3165backed Yes | 2c | 3,700$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.9 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +210%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51b2…10cebacked Yes | 7c | 3,398$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 5c | 3,331$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.6 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…1083backed Yes | 1c | 3,296$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 4c | 3,278$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.53 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 3,029$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 120 | 23.3%28 W · 92 L | +10.9wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 6c | 3,000$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.43 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked Yes | 4c | 2,937$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.87 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 4c | 2,909$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46c9…7636backed Yes | 11c | 2,733$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +6.4wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 8c | 2,672$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.79 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88a…3e8cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,657$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.98 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +197.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 1c | 2,628$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077e…06d2backed Yes | 13c | 2,610$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.3 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 2c | 2,546$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16af…12a5backed Yes | 3c | 2,492$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.69 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0543…8d20backed Yes | 16c | 2,400$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,320$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 8c | 2,316$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.27 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9970…09bebacked Yes | 11c | 2,273$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 5c | 2,268$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.75 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…c153backed Yes | 18c | 2,263$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 2,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d41…6acabacked Yes | 17c | 2,070$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 10c | 2,057$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Yes | 4c | 2,039$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 110 | 40%44 W · 66 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…e0eebacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 108 | 38%41 W · 67 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 3c | 1,927$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…aa8dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,800$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 5c | 1,800$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 322 | 43.5%140 W · 182 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7976…310abacked Yes | 12c | 1,776$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…b4d5backed Yes | 13c | 1,758$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,742$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…ba00backed Yes | 13c | 1,658$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff91…ab3abacked Yes | 8c | 1,600$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd550…e673backed Yes | 13c | 1,589$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -69%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…4268backed Yes | 6c | 1,559$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 74 | 21.6%16 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed Yes | 11c | 1,539$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.8 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…f655backed Yes | 16c | 1,519$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5270…715dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,511$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…d9cebacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 11c | 1,475$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.56 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | +10.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?this page
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Yes won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?No won
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.