TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd550…e673

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
29
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Bundesliga, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Bundesliga at 52 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-69%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$39
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.68
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$163.64
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$50
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+426.3%+$170.53
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$59.15
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$26.88
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$98.94
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$40
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$20
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$16.85
US strikes Iran by February 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$105.75
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$922Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$921.55
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$413Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$413
All 17 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)backed Real Madrid CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$90
Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$21.62
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
1. FC Köln vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+63.9%+$140.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.49
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.