TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,221,591
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,365,991

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,221,591 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfba8…d489backed Yes8c61,806$4,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,944.4960%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb35e…0867backed Yes12c60,250$7,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,507.511435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72ac…1e4dbacked Yes6c48,751$2,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,823.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes5c40,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20010313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a3c…8ba0backed Yes11c36,619$4,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,101.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes3c35,656$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.3314213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf575…c1d5backed Yes3c35,565$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.8100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca5…8727backed Yes3c35,486$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.554515.6%7 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+280.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes2c29,865$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.29270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6835…f97abacked Yes7c28,500$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,994.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa9c…ed43backed Yes0c28,231$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes1c27,290$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.261333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9cf…69fdbacked Yes9c26,606$2,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,394.561040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c25,800$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1424163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes0c24,098$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.25747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Yes2c23,300$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.62015%3 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-67.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b6…ad7cbacked Yes7c19,758$1,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,391.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes1c19,365$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1970%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62aa…70adbacked Yes7c18,481$1,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes6c18,446$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.8643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes2c18,078$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.26220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c67…44a8backed Yes10c13,771$1,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,427.350%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc29…1c34backed Yes2c13,547$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.97454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes5c13,186$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.611022%2 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-91.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c12,979$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.961488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4bc7…7e20backed Yes8c12,515$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.21166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c11,415$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.441015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8907…d8e6backed Yes0c10,959$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.88620%0 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73b1…a882backed Yes2c10,640$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.031010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-61.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb392…fc73backed Yes9c10,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$899.994912.2%6 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-77.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes1c9,877$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.773013.3%4 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d35…23c1backed Yes8c9,500$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.952040%8 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+46%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1087…013bbacked Yes7c9,283$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.823613.9%5 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c9,121$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.996785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab7…d144backed Yes6c8,754$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.59478.5%4 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick16cpaid+31.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes3c8,603$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.4111210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde06…7a72backed Yes10c8,530$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.99520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-20%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c49…97febacked Yes2c8,407$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.26150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf10a…a922backed Yes11c7,926$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.84520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda4b…8a64backed Yes9c7,524$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf499…b5d9backed Yes12c7,277$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.281241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes7c6,968$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.983511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-70.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Yes1c6,885$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.421118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3954…6e11backed Yes9c6,802$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c5f…31d1backed Yes5c6,579$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.08120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x784d…d27dbacked Yes14c6,442$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.572729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x465c…e94dbacked Yes1c6,431$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.85160%0 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07a2…3389backed Yes8c6,400$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49250%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d14…9edabacked Yes8c6,386$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43e0…46d1backed Yes7c5,813$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.612615.4%4 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick12cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c88…af41backed Yes8c5,614$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc288…3480backed Yes0c5,550$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.14030%12 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+5.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x66f5…b326backed Yes5c5,500$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28940%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes7c5,400$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37870%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe699…8dc2backed Yes1c5,011$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes4c4,978$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.791672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes0c4,800$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42922.1%6 W · 286 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes4c4,627$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.751792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x211e…b366backed Yes4c4,527$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.461216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-69.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46a7…229ebacked Yes6c4,514$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.0740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf2b…6681backed Yes8c4,365$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.3911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-82.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x83e8…7b89backed Yes6c4,149$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.163514.3%5 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-77.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2fd…4959backed Yes7c4,041$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.951816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c3,844$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.692581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfca2…a745backed Yes6c3,684$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.09933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+275.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb49a…3a01backed Yes3c3,407$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd550…e673backed Yes3c3,213$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed Yes4c3,190$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.963010%3 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d2f…2687backed Yes3c3,018$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe766…8fa8backed Yes10c2,976$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.83170%0 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x318f…d375backed Yes2c2,958$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.75100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes12c2,911$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.317018.6%13 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56aa…250bbacked Yes3c2,817$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8508…9fdabacked Yes2c2,475$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.172321.7%5 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e3…5889backed Yes4c2,327$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes3c2,238$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.185514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5849…a99ebacked Yes1c1,955$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.14150%0 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aa6…e26ebacked Yes2c1,941$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes3c1,932$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.22850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-30.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb835…c272backed Yes11c1,931$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7e…4a57backed Yes9c1,913$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.7980%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ab4…02d6backed Yes1c1,765$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.89180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes1c1,726$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4728113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3016…9ffdbacked Yes2c1,704$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.04110%0 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e71…c117backed Yes1c1,565$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.86170%0 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe16f…655cbacked Yes12c1,471$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.622313%3 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…62a4backed Yes10c1,436$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503215.6%5 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff8…274dbacked Yes3c1,406$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0270%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc8…0960backed Yes12c1,310$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.19110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x292c…43bfbacked Yes3c1,274$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0460%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b1…a8febacked Yes2c1,274$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5490…1806backed Yes5c1,250$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.921729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick20cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x868e…5392backed Yes2c1,243$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.62170%0 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x698b…7f5ebacked Yes3c1,235$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73bc…59d9backed Yes3c1,219$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf465…28e9backed Yes12c1,200$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1441030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-61.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b6f…0e5fbacked Yes9c1,200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10840%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9902…34b3backed Yes11c1,094$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.74520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-71.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bdf…89c4backed Yes8c1,084$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.752030%6 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dde…2217backed Yes9c955.86$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.031717.6%3 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-55.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.