TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,672,409
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,907,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,672,409 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xceec…4ad9backed Yes3c159,570$5,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,449.48100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca86…cc70backed Yes2c137,837$3,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,173.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda6b…a403backed Yes2c137,820$3,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,165.44620%0 W · 62 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes2c78,809$1,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,821.263835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29cb…7a3ebacked Yes3c77,040$2,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,492.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d8…d705backed Yes2c49,219$992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes2c49,104$746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.761031.9%2 W · 101 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0c8…e371backed Yes1c34,951$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes3c31,813$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.913923.1%9 W · 30 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+103.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6c6…043dbacked Yes3c31,155$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.0911316.8%19 W · 94 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0e…62fcbacked Yes2c28,374$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes2c27,524$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.881015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4888…182dbacked Yes3c24,560$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$746.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes2c22,999$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.991022%2 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-91.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes1c22,693$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.51333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9e60…ae42backed Yes1c22,517$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb0…26ecbacked Yes2c20,183$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.562222.7%5 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-47.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253b…0ae7backed Yes2c19,060$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.196816.2%11 W · 57 L+8.3wins+0.12per pick4cpaid+273.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes1c18,923$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.821466.2%9 W · 137 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes1c18,031$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.42180%0 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f64…52d2backed Yes2c17,281$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.68190%0 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9859…1650backed Yes2c16,601$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.25240%0 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1da5…90c9backed Yes3c16,140$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.61137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-85%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90da…4042backed Yes3c15,610$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.22812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-78.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfca2…a745backed Yes2c14,093$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.82933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+275.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x82c2…4b27backed Yes3c13,849$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.2420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes3c13,693$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.5287828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7558…2d70backed Yes2c13,478$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.931105.5%6 W · 104 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8212…ebbfbacked Yes3c12,630$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe312…e0b2backed Yes6c12,258$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…631cbacked Yes5c12,154$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c11,707$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.796785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e09…c7fabacked Yes8c10,993$867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.3670%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c10,395$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.364163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6e8…8676backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10e8…c707backed Yes2c9,718$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.254015%6 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1087…013bbacked Yes3c9,688$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.633613.9%5 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fef…4849backed Yes1c9,430$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.7350%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bc8…91a1backed Yes1c9,308$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72240%0 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4028…5f4abacked Yes3c9,282$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c9,115$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.651490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes2c8,224$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.231792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes2c7,911$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.621672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e1e…bb8cbacked Yes2c7,884$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8370%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc750…57acbacked Yes2c7,334$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.8140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e07…efe0backed Yes1c7,073$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.69320%0 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes3c6,735$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.63511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-70.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb370…c04bbacked Yes1c6,689$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dae…783dbacked Yes2c5,995$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8850%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc288…3480backed Yes0c5,759$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.884030%12 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+5.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4232…4159backed Yes1c5,698$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.84170%0 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b1c…c3b0backed Yes3c5,635$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.991711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-79.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5939…4701backed Yes2c5,602$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.04137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-74.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f2b…d743backed Yes0c5,395$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.74120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes2c5,301$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.612581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f5…db45backed Yes3c5,078$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5960%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8907…d8e6backed Yes0c5,005$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.01620%0 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3016…9ffdbacked Yes2c4,863$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.22110%0 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df9…b0ddbacked Yes2c4,770$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3164…02babacked Yes2c4,770$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.86290%0 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes1c4,722$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.158126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd7c…46d9backed Yes3c4,704$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.93185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9167…5338backed Yes2c4,661$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.87120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e64…0e46backed Yes3c4,561$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x615e…5295backed Yes3c4,503$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.152270.9%2 W · 225 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9284…df93backed Yes2c4,341$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8d…299cbacked Yes4c4,333$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1904047.5%19 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b5e…f54fbacked Yes2c4,312$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2955…b736backed Yes2c4,278$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.06296.9%2 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-84.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe46…c74fbacked Yes2c3,902$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x068d…70d3backed Yes2c3,880$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.94517.8%8 W · 37 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick6cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x14d9…407dbacked Yes2c3,653$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.27200%0 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14bf…c45fbacked Yes2c3,588$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf575…0791backed Yes2c3,581$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.951637.5%6 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.25per pick13cpaid+315.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x15da…d514backed Yes1c3,576$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x061d…48eabacked Yes1c3,472$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd7d5…02a0backed Yes2c3,458$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa4…d1aebacked Yes1c3,431$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes2c3,423$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.88590%0 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe32…2177backed Yes3c3,385$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.62425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes3c3,282$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.986518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc012…4de2backed Yes2c3,234$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e0b…ca71backed Yes5c3,228$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdc…3b1ebacked Yes4c3,200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x931a…1f6cbacked Yes3c3,129$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes1c3,079$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.73170%0 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f6…72a6backed Yes2c2,977$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.65616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f13…ca9abacked Yes2c2,958$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.441931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-49.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes2c2,886$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c2,880$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42922.1%6 W · 286 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes3c2,800$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.67449.1%4 W · 40 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-85.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80b9…0863backed Yes3c2,798$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.87180%0 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb726…cfa1backed Yes2c2,771$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09b0…fb66backed Yes3c2,535$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5630%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacc9…c790backed Yes2c2,484$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3770%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes2c2,362$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.67219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc628…562fbacked Yes1c2,329$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes3c2,251$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.133212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf77b…26d6backed Yes3c2,164$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.88120%0 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bd…8203backed Yes1c2,143$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.