TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,012,304
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,266,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,012,304 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5ae…84d8backed Yes3c108,639$3,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,651.451513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba8…d489backed Yes4c84,235$3,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,191.1860%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c67…44a8backed Yes4c73,181$3,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,081.8850%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes0c54,290$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.29230%0 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes1c40,331$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.72220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1087…013bbacked Yes3c30,383$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.993613.9%5 W · 31 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8907…d8e6backed Yes0c27,714$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.43620%0 W · 62 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes2c25,818$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.67270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c24,458$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.274754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes2c22,638$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.0914213.4%19 W · 123 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes2c19,995$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.910313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…9b5ebacked Yes6c18,060$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.124422.7%10 W · 34 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e5c…3036backed Yes2c17,926$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.071022%2 W · 100 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-91.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c17,700$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.34163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab5…fdc0backed Yes2c17,527$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes0c17,000$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.261333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfc29…1c34backed Yes1c15,660$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.44454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x784d…d27dbacked Yes6c15,272$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864.152729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x465c…e94dbacked Yes0c13,299$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.82160%0 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfca2…a745backed Yes3c13,052$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.43933.3%3 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+275.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1a2…4bc9backed Yes4c12,161$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.43616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3164…02babacked Yes4c11,636$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.66290%0 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb392…fc73backed Yes4c10,998$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.884912.2%6 W · 43 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-77.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c49…97febacked Yes2c10,676$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.18150%0 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe42e…017bbacked Yes4c10,646$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.9170%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca5…8727backed Yes2c9,950$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.054515.6%7 W · 38 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+280.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x46a7…229ebacked Yes3c9,142$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.3540%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf499…b5d9backed Yes5c8,820$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.521241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf10a…a922backed Yes5c8,647$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.59520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-66%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd9f…d10fbacked Yes4c8,138$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick8cpaid+120.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c5f…31d1backed Yes3c7,310$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.82120%0 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c7,265$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.626785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff8…274dbacked Yes2c7,070$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.7970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66f5…b326backed Yes2c6,000$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11340%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dde…2217backed Yes5c5,750$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.931717.6%3 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-55.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf859…7447backed Yes4c5,669$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a7e…4a57backed Yes4c5,663$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.9580%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes2c4,937$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.431672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9a5…3396backed Yes1c4,888$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0890%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes2c4,795$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.321792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a7e…d8debacked Yes2c4,549$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes3c3,612$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.912581.2%3 W · 255 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1168…8d94backed Yes2c3,439$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.091010%1 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-57.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e01…a4babacked Yes3c3,378$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.12260%0 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c1…bdb9backed Yes3c2,780$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.633935.9%14 W · 25 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd550…e673backed Yes2c2,659$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.49520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-35.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xade3…3b44backed Yes4c2,354$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5780%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8508…9fdabacked Yes3c2,284$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.512321.7%5 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick9cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4266…0e08backed Yes4c2,082$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.280%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes4c2,005$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.281373.6%5 W · 132 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ef…8168backed Yes1c1,905$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e5…1c91backed Yes3c1,798$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x878a…134dbacked Yes2c1,758$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes4c1,557$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.623511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-70.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73bc…59d9backed Yes2c1,534$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7560%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x517b…fe53backed Yes2c1,505$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9abbbacked Yes3c1,434$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.02100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes2c1,336$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.345514.5%8 W · 47 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3304…967dbacked Yes4c1,302$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda4b…8a64backed Yes4c1,277$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6f…0e5fbacked Yes4c1,200$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4740%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25db…28debacked Yes3c1,200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f6…72a6backed Yes2c1,144$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.16616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes4c1,100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.84017.5%7 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-56.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd667…9a02backed Yes1c1,081$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-77.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aba…9be5backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00e6…c87ebacked Yes1c923.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.15633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+59.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes2c904.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.88590%0 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06c5…b901backed Yes2c892.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.23520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7a…b823backed Yes5c870.9$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.911216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-77.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80b9…0863backed Yes5c841.63$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.95180%0 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d2…05a8backed Yes3c783.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.88280%0 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe766…8fa8backed Yes5c737.21$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.53170%0 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf2b…6681backed Yes5c690.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.53911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-82.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4a3…81fabacked Yes3c579.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.63110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9151…01ebbacked Yes4c532.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1580%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes5c502.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.292934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5759…2d3fbacked Yes3c499.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.52326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bdf…89c4backed Yes4c478.44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.222030%6 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7d3…5379backed Yes4c455.45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x034e…f79dbacked Yes5c450.39$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.573718.9%7 W · 30 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick12cpaid+78.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2bb0…d415backed Yes4c430.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5939…4701backed Yes4c429.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.73137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-74.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x403d…ad5bbacked Yes4c416.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb803…b265backed Yes3c410$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204a…7d5cbacked Yes4c328.39$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01e4…0444backed Yes4c325.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac4…8844backed Yes4c306.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9265…75babacked Yes4c301.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.15110%0 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x824d…1271backed Yes4c299.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes4c288.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.97449.1%4 W · 40 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-85.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5848…b529backed Yes4c255$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xceca…9931backed Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0e5…1ed7backed Yes4c249.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.