Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4e2ae25b9c0f067161c0a0d384a4e657b7095a95befb569c72a926ec6577c53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,012,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,266,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,012,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5ae…84d8backed Yes | 3c | 108,639$3,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,651.45 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…d489backed Yes | 4c | 84,235$3,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,191.18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…44a8backed Yes | 4c | 73,181$3,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,081.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 54,290$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes | 1c | 40,331$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.72 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1087…013bbacked Yes | 3c | 30,383$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.99 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 27,714$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.43 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes | 2c | 25,818$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.67 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 24,458$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.27 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 2c | 22,638$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.09 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes | 2c | 19,995$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.9 | 103 | 13.6%14 W · 89 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9b5ebacked Yes | 6c | 18,060$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.12 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 2c | 17,926$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.07 | 102 | 2%2 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 17,700$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.3 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab5…fdc0backed Yes | 2c | 17,527$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 0c | 17,000$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 133 | 3.8%5 W · 128 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…1c34backed Yes | 1c | 15,660$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.44 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784d…d27dbacked Yes | 6c | 15,272$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.15 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…e94dbacked Yes | 0c | 13,299$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca2…a745backed Yes | 3c | 13,052$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +275.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a2…4bc9backed Yes | 4c | 12,161$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…02babacked Yes | 4c | 11,636$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.66 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 4c | 10,998$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.88 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c49…97febacked Yes | 2c | 10,676$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.18 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…017bbacked Yes | 4c | 10,646$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…8727backed Yes | 2c | 9,950$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.05 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +280.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46a7…229ebacked Yes | 3c | 9,142$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf499…b5d9backed Yes | 5c | 8,820$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…a922backed Yes | 5c | 8,647$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9f…d10fbacked Yes | 4c | 8,138$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5f…31d1backed Yes | 3c | 7,310$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.82 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 7,265$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.62 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff8…274dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,070$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.79 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66f5…b326backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dde…2217backed Yes | 5c | 5,750$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.93 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…7447backed Yes | 4c | 5,669$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7e…4a57backed Yes | 4c | 5,663$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 229 | 0%0 W · 229 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,937$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.43 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a5…3396backed Yes | 1c | 4,888$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 2c | 4,795$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.32 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7e…d8debacked Yes | 2c | 4,549$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 3,612$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.91 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1168…8d94backed Yes | 2c | 3,439$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e01…a4babacked Yes | 3c | 3,378$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…bdb9backed Yes | 3c | 2,780$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.63 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd550…e673backed Yes | 2c | 2,659$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade3…3b44backed Yes | 4c | 2,354$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…9fdabacked Yes | 3c | 2,284$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…0e08backed Yes | 4c | 2,082$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,005$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ef…8168backed Yes | 1c | 1,905$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e5…1c91backed Yes | 3c | 1,798$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…134dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,758$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,557$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bc…59d9backed Yes | 2c | 1,534$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…fe53backed Yes | 2c | 1,505$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9abbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,434$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 2c | 1,336$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 55 | 14.5%8 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…967dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,302$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4b…8a64backed Yes | 4c | 1,277$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6f…0e5fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27f6…72a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,144$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd667…9a02backed Yes | 1c | 1,081$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…9be5backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00e6…c87ebacked Yes | 1c | 923.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 2c | 904.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c5…b901backed Yes | 2c | 892.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…b823backed Yes | 5c | 870.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80b9…0863backed Yes | 5c | 841.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d2…05a8backed Yes | 3c | 783.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…8fa8backed Yes | 5c | 737.21$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2b…6681backed Yes | 5c | 690.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a3…81fabacked Yes | 3c | 579.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…01ebbacked Yes | 4c | 532.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 5c | 502.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5759…2d3fbacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdf…89c4backed Yes | 4c | 478.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d3…5379backed Yes | 4c | 455.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034e…f79dbacked Yes | 5c | 450.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb0…d415backed Yes | 4c | 430.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5939…4701backed Yes | 4c | 429.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403d…ad5bbacked Yes | 4c | 416.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb803…b265backed Yes | 3c | 410$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204a…7d5cbacked Yes | 4c | 328.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01e4…0444backed Yes | 4c | 325.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…8844backed Yes | 4c | 306.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9265…75babacked Yes | 4c | 301.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 4c | 288.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…b529backed Yes | 4c | 255$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…9931backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e5…1ed7backed Yes | 4c | 249.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.