Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03ae71e2af9a29dd15ee17bde2304719f596d58b4db60dc6bec1bd5ff9247609
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $944,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $964,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $944,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 52,062$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…d489backed Yes | 2c | 44,990$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fb…551fbacked Yes | 0c | 36,877$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 1c | 28,000$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 102 | 2%2 W · 100 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -91.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…9a8abacked Yes | 1c | 24,426$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.43 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 24,050$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…02babacked Yes | 1c | 23,806$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.11 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…3480backed Yes | 0c | 22,260$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb779…ab22backed Yes | 0c | 21,017$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73b1…a882backed Yes | 1c | 20,137$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 19,520$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 1c | 18,609$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.12 | 142 | 13.4%19 W · 123 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1087…013bbacked Yes | 2c | 15,398$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.04 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…8727backed Yes | 1c | 15,060$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.6 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +280.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…e94dbacked Yes | 0c | 14,274$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…44a8backed Yes | 2c | 9,165$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…1c34backed Yes | 1c | 9,030$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66f…e3d3backed Yes | 1c | 8,083$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…7447backed Yes | 2c | 7,420$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…46d1backed Yes | 2c | 6,416$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.64 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 2c | 5,684$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…01b8backed Yes | 0c | 5,649$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,375$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…64c1backed Yes | 2c | 5,081$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff8…274dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,697$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae9f…763cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,520$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…19d2backed Yes | 0c | 3,501$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…02d6backed Yes | 0c | 3,212$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…a99ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,900$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bc…59d9backed Yes | 1c | 2,784$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…13debacked Yes | 2c | 2,600$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb811…5434backed Yes | 2c | 2,515$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,273$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…dc59backed Yes | 1c | 2,161$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,091$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 1c | 1,894$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…9be5backed Yes | 1c | 1,857$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 1c | 1,817$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,729$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d3…5379backed Yes | 2c | 1,708$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d9…ab69backed Yes | 1c | 1,630$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209d…43cebacked Yes | 2c | 1,610$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc750…57acbacked Yes | 1c | 1,560$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe6…908fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,350$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02da…5b67backed Yes | 2c | 1,078$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4006…f9debacked Yes | 2c | 1,010$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 151 | 9.9%15 W · 136 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517b…fe53backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2543…ce9bbacked Yes | 1c | 913.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c49…97febacked Yes | 2c | 858.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5759…2d3fbacked Yes | 2c | 605.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in April?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.