TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,086,510
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,003,044

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,086,510 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 205 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb8e6…1ea4backed Yes8c68,594$5,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,819.751030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6916…2fd4backed Yes7c50,897$3,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,463.3263835.4%226 W · 412 L+18.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf781…cb73backed Yes11c33,045$3,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,484.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffc8…5671backed Yes2c29,527$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe157…51ebbacked Yes3c28,248$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.52250%0 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xadbc…81e8backed Yes4c26,675$966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb77b…70a5backed Yes73c24,000$17,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,410.320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x075e…1840backed Yes7c15,135$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.82910.3%3 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3379…f0b4backed Yes6c15,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdc0…c46cbacked Yes4c13,649$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.621711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-78.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes0c13,366$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.731333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes4c12,225$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.18306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes3c11,875$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.0628113.2%37 W · 244 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3822…b720backed Yes13c11,332$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.18634.9%30 W · 56 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe29e…f2c6backed Yes3c11,004$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c10,575$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.694754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0042…321ebacked Yes3c9,799$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.2840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x465c…e94dbacked Yes10c9,034$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.28160%0 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ef6…babcbacked Yes0c9,000$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Yes4c8,900$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.656613.6%9 W · 57 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes4c7,800$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c7,300$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97320%0 W · 32 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f4f…1bd9backed Yes3c7,126$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+163.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b59…58e6backed Yes2c6,451$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501001%1 W · 99 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-96.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…ec47backed Yes14c6,284$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$876.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes11c6,072$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.891015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x442c…9120backed Yes4c5,855$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes1c5,800$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5270%0 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes4c5,360$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.5123411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x59bb…6d65backed Yes13c5,246$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.48456.7%3 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick14cpaid-89.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2a3…96b3backed Yes2c5,088$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe119…e30fbacked Yes3c5,000$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+168%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3301…4dd8backed Yes3c4,918$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.181024.9%5 W · 97 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc131…f290backed Yes1c4,800$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.17160%0 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3f…ac90backed Yes3c4,437$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.76170%0 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9d7…d309backed Yes10c4,297$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes4c4,146$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.458619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xede1…7dd1backed Yes8c4,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3101533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a50…338dbacked Yes6c3,807$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.83911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-64.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes2c3,500$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8828021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b64…707bbacked Yes1c3,412$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.551414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-50.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb14f…d825backed Yes7c3,093$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79f7…087cbacked Yes3c3,027$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fdf…1561backed Yes3c3,000$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes4c3,000$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca7…960dbacked Yes4c2,973$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c2,967$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5940%0 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9531…9099backed Yes15c2,938$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.7540%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd399…3f46backed Yes2c2,880$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+198.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes3c2,865$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.297327.4%20 W · 53 L-9.1wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-59.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc3a0…b4b2backed Yes1c2,828$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4af7…2381backed Yes12c2,803$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.871010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-80.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fd8…de98backed Yes10c2,790$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3016…9ffdbacked Yes8c2,752$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.02110%0 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a5c…d35cbacked Yes8c2,711$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9840…2065backed Yes4c2,564$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf215…f719backed Yes4c2,545$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x190e…afe1backed Yes2c2,361$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f73…acefbacked Yes13c2,355$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c2,300$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4131…d928backed Yes1c2,283$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ae…51e0backed Yes4c2,272$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.5914019.3%27 W · 113 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6db…e48fbacked Yes3c2,113$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec7…9a5cbacked Yes7c2,101$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.39425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb71…07edbacked Yes1c2,096$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a4d…0b8fbacked Yes2c2,075$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.62666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes3c2,002$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.42219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick5cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb0…26ecbacked Yes13c2,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2502222.7%5 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-47.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c3c…2a87backed Yes7c1,993$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.6180%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked Yes1c1,936$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4270%0 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x991f…d3c2backed Yes10c1,807$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.343324.2%8 W · 25 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick37cpaid-61.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4648…fc9fbacked Yes5c1,780$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.887018.6%13 W · 57 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cd1…8af7backed Yes5c1,758$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.2185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-90.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad8…3506backed Yes4c1,748$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c6…927bbacked Yes7c1,717$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.941672.4%4 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1324…382dbacked Yes1c1,698$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ac…e69bbacked Yes1c1,538$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa63e…742abacked Yes4c1,538$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd930…0eaabacked Yes8c1,505$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f69…acb6backed Yes8c1,500$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.41792.2%4 W · 175 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3041…acf2backed Yes1c1,401$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53f4…1837backed Yes4c1,316$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes2c1,315$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.991488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes12c1,310$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.192520%5 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x340a…b84ebacked Yes1c1,297$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9265…75babacked Yes8c1,289$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.64110%0 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc29…1c34backed Yes3c1,195$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.86454.4%2 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd961…57a8backed Yes4c1,105$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes2c1,100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1402.5%1 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes2c1,079$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.842825%7 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-52.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa33c…0ff2backed Yes1c1,067$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.051043.8%4 W · 100 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc2d…6040backed Yes2c1,043$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-53.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0428…85b1backed No73c1,031$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.38683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick62cpaid+23.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf4d…78f5backed Yes4c1,009$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.776518.5%12 W · 53 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21be…410ebacked Yes7c989.81$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5141…015abacked Yes3c974.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8888…0b39backed Yes33c948.49$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.993234.4%11 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56d2…70a3backed Yes1c922.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb779…ab22backed Yes3c916.27$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.41464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7a3…e60abacked Yes11c910$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.11618.8%3 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick10cpaid+72.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.