TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe119…e30f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
24
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 55 out of 100; worst AI at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+168%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 May 4-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.24
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$107
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$125
Will Solana dip to $100 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+1,539.3%+$1,673.33
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 29-January 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,520Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+138.1%+$3,479.56
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$4,527Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$4,526.91
Will Bitcoin dip to $88,000 December 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,192Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+137.6%+$3,016.25
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 November 24-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,118Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,118
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,645Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,645.12
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$350
Will Bitcoin dip to $108k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+733.3%+$933.2
All 11 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$7,200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$2,800
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$238Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$237.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$91.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$300
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.