Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 29-January 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1febe320defdc3a3a1a88e1a93b290ce3c5af27993f7786686ecfc9d0e16caf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $520,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $527,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $520,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6916…b44bbacked No | 0c | 108,751$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f38…e8f9backed No | 2c | 19,812$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 42c | 17,334$7,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,067.76 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 28c | 12,789$3,575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,214.75 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…e9d8backed No | 3c | 10,200$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…7967backed Yes | 41c | 9,518$3,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,608.6 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…3ecabacked No | 2c | 7,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe119…e30fbacked Yes | 42c | 5,999$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,479.56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +168%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f93…5c82backed Yes | 20c | 4,990$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,990.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +399%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfede…70c1backed Yes | 22c | 4,800$1,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,743.95 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…f012backed Yes | 24c | 4,242$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,229.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 2,459$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,947.05 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 22c | 2,100$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634.76 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b99…1cd7backed Yes | 17c | 2,006$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,655.95 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 50c | 1,899$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.65 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…6321backed Yes | 8c | 1,863$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,712.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +173.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…7677backed Yes | 15c | 1,660$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 8c | 1,612$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.47 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd53…4d7ebacked No | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd7…f31dbacked No | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…2de9backed Yes | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffd…af88backed Yes | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,038$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.98 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 94 | 27.7%26 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…832fbacked Yes | 16c | 967.93$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.98 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 19c | 909.39$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.46 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6c…5ab5backed No | 78c | 907.5$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 857$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.44 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked No | 72c | 822.13$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.93 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x882e…54cebacked Yes | 28c | 809.95$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8802…bac4backed Yes | 79c | 784.29$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 9c | 723.27$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.94 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e7…89ffbacked Yes | 17c | 561.05$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.71 | 59 | 8.5%5 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 538.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.4 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf62…9bd3backed Yes | 19c | 534.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.84 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cff…2349backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd552…5ebebacked Yes | 35c | 512.69$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.69 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 75c | 498.85$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.34 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6a…e281backed Yes | 13c | 490$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6d…7104backed Yes | 23c | 486.3$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed Yes | 12c | 437.29$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.9 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 11c | 370$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.1 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…9c9ebacked No | 57c | 367.57$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e4…b626backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 13c | 330.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.94 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 15c | 300$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.7 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 107 | 3.7%4 W · 103 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf944…c249backed No | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185c…dee1backed No | 58c | 265.71$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6767…be76backed Yes | 38c | 262.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d07…5d52backed Yes | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed No | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.21 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 79c | 250$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9754…bef1backed Yes | 62c | 242.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984d…3bb2backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…360bbacked Yes | 9c | 201.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.13 | 116 | 5.2%6 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b93…0163backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd5…0ec9backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…9508backed Yes | 7c | 199.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +374.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…e273backed Yes | 24c | 197.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf78e…eeb3backed No | 78c | 193.72$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 18c | 183.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.59 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…6f58backed Yes | 26c | 180.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe61d…e172backed No | 75c | 159.99$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…3d47backed Yes | 27c | 155.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f6…4152backed Yes | 19c | 153.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…1c1cbacked Yes | 36c | 140.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…963ebacked No | 73c | 137.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…ebecbacked No | 79c | 135.47$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 43c | 134.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.26 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4d82…4f03backed Yes | 11c | 130$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…38cebacked Yes | 65c | 119.33$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 65c | 115.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc006…1c7abacked Yes | 44c | 113.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…6f14backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | +7.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…69b0backed Yes | 33c | 106.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…79b5backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52d…3728backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68ed…fbddbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb73b…67efbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked Yes | 14c | 94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78b7…ef35backed No | 67c | 88.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc87f…69cebacked Yes | 22c | 82.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +359.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd26…6b44backed Yes | 13c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +376.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc887…869bbacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…026dbacked No | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…c812backed Yes | 19c | 73.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…6d9dbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…5bd3backed No | 59c | 69.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 21c | 67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f6…311abacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…b275backed Yes | 19c | 62.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…fdffbacked No | 63c | 60.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a03…c37ebacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 63c | 58.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -8.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…db07backed Yes | 35c | 57.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 29-January 4?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,100 December 29-January 4?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 December 29-January 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.