Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 December 29-January 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb1729b821383c578f062aa2fc84071fbf59f5b7ebf70cb921a8d04ae4e7b5c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,051
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80e9…7967backed No | 69c | 13,075$9,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,035.42 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 57c | 10,422$5,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,983.29 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa92c…b4d6backed Yes | 4c | 7,481$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.8 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed No | 46c | 4,844$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,623.61 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,681$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 46c | 4,448$2,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,032.59 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 4c | 3,814$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.56 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…9f7ebacked Yes | 36c | 3,622$1,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,321.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked No | 52c | 3,420$1,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -5.9wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x38b0…e8eebacked Yes | 3c | 1,705$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked Yes | 3c | 1,600$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,457$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…832fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,369$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 15c | 1,351$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.93 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d4…64aebacked No | 38c | 1,253$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.95 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,243$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…0830backed Yes | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 997.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 120 | 3.3%4 W · 116 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…9665backed Yes | 1c | 899.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 29c | 785.77$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.92 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 3c | 771.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 85 | 5.9%5 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 7c | 560$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e6…0933backed Yes | 2c | 515$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…6d9dbacked Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 386.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53e…6c75backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 40c | 245.31$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.18 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed No | 36c | 220.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.99 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | +9.1wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 45c | 220$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 71c | 213.64$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.67 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf000…5667backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82b5…1542backed No | 67c | 146.57$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed No | 18c | 130.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.3 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1785…efa7backed Yes | 8c | 124.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d72…1214backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…7538backed Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…2899backed Yes | 17c | 72.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58cc…7713backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1dd…a272backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 117 | 26.5%31 W · 86 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…ebecbacked No | 65c | 50.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…dfdcbacked Yes | 65c | 16.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 December 29-January 4?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,100 December 29-January 4?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 29-January 4?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 December 29-January 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.