Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $3,100 December 29-January 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x866302990905e523fa0e87ce15bd5cf25fb4a865b86ba648de409f0f689ca87c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $347,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $278,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $347,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x242a…cd0abacked No | 0c | 105,671$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…535fbacked No | 0c | 54,061$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 73c | 30,089$22,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,080.3 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 43c | 17,449$7,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,918.46 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ed…10b4backed No | 55c | 10,199$5,568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,568.01 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf944…c249backed No | 2c | 7,300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Yes | 51c | 7,275$3,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,569.97 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 34c | 6,185$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,085.05 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252d…c456backed Yes | 35c | 5,628$1,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,649.15 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5086…fe3bbacked No | 60c | 5,500$3,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,284.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…7967backed Yes | 46c | 4,078$1,869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.54 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 65c | 2,500$1,615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.72 | 137 | 70.1%96 W · 41 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc294…a660backed Yes | 32c | 1,900$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bf…95d3backed No | 64c | 1,560$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd53…4d7ebacked No | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd7…f31dbacked No | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7310…e776backed Yes | 28c | 1,107$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d4…b3f0backed No | 68c | 956.44$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed No | 51c | 929.63$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.3 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f38…e8f9backed No | 11c | 749.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd434…b5debacked No | 66c | 745$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6585…438abacked Yes | 52c | 700$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0e…27a4backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…ff2dbacked Yes | 37c | 500$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…e9d8backed No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 70c | 500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 450$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed No | 67c | 423.54$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.77 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 30c | 401.78$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.01 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 29c | 344$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked No | 57c | 320$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.7 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked No | 32c | 309.38$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…409cbacked No | 63c | 250$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed Yes | 28c | 210$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.6 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…6d9dbacked Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…b5bfbacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…8e9ebacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 164.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…832fbacked Yes | 28c | 120$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dad…0830backed Yes | 40c | 116.95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7b…2814backed Yes | 42c | 105$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9112…7797backed No | 30c | 100.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3761…bb47backed Yes | 35c | 94.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 44c | 88.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…69b0backed Yes | 73c | 76.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b4…032fbacked Yes | 38c | 65.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dae…18b4backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1f…f40bbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…ebecbacked No | 70c | 62.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd26…6b44backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +376.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed No | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…4ac7backed No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…5f85backed No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66ef…f738backed No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aad…ff47backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.43per pick | 47cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010b…81dcbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…1332backed No | 58c | 45.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…d3ffbacked No | 65c | 43.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…559ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f4…66e6backed No | 64c | 34.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd08b…f06bbacked No | 58c | 34.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf307…e380backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db4…2f93backed Yes | 39c | 25.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…eb35backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…d9f3backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…1f00backed No | 67c | 16.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…c770backed No | 68c | 14.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $3,100 December 29-January 4?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,800 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $2,900 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 29-January 4?Yes won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,300 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,400 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,600 December 29-January 4?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $3,700 December 29-January 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.