TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfd26…6b44

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
86
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 59 out of 100; worst Premier League at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tennis — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Qatar Total Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Sofia Keninbacked Zheng · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+47.1%+$6.12
Set Handicap: Sinner (-2.5) vs Shelton (+2.5)backed Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$15.8
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5)backed Svitolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+66.7%+$7.17
Australian Open Men's: Ben Shelton vs Casper Ruudbacked Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+69.1%+$11.44
Australian Open Women's: Elina Svitolina vs Mirra Andreevabacked Andreeva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$26.2
Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Fabian Marozsanbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+86.7%+$13.73
Australian Open Men's: Learner Tien vs Nuno Borgesbacked Tien · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+37%+$5.13
Boulter vs. Bencic: Total Sets O/U 2.5backed Under 2.5 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+40.8%+$4.5
Australian Open Women's: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Jasmine Paolinibacked Paolini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+40.8%+$5.8
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Blockx vs Jason Kublerbacked Blockx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$10.08
Brisbane International: Daniil Medvedev vs Kamil Majchrzakbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+104.5%+$14.26
Brisbane International: Raphael Collignon vs Grigor Dimitrovbacked Dimitrov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$16.86
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Andrey Rublev vs Yibing Wubacked Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+77.6%+$13.96
Brisbane International: Grigor Dimitrov vs Pablo Carreno Bustabacked Dimitrov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+53.8%+$5.42
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinnerbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$18.96
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Zverev (+1.5)backed Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$13.4
WTA Finals, Stefanie Graf Group: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolinibacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+33.3%+$5
Rolex Paris Masters: Grigor Dimitrov vs Daniil Medvedevbacked Dimitrov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.98
Rolex Paris Masters: Fabian Marozsan vs Arthur Rinderknechbacked Rinderknech · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+89%+$13.35
Erste Bank Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Corentin Moutetbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.26
Swiss Indoors Basel: Jenson Brooksby vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokinabacked Fokina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$16.17
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Ugo Humbert vs Casper Ruudbacked Ruud · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$9.41
European Open: Raphael Collignon vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokinabacked Fokina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.64
European Open: Marcos Giron vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokinabacked Fokina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$6.33
European Open: Emil Ruusuvuori vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardbacked Perricard · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$5.4
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST1233.3%4 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-46.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Premier League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$13.73
Fulham FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+29.9%+$3.75
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$12.25
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+72.4%+$7.56
Brentford FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.56
Liverpool FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.7
Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+72.4%+$7.8
Liverpool FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$14.31
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$12.25
Will Newcastle win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$9.59
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.49
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+39.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+37.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+376.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+75.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
BC Dubai vs. Fenerbahcebacked Fenerbahce · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$14.11
Panathinaikos vs. Partizanbacked Panathinaikos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+42.9%+$4.85
ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne vs. Monacobacked ASVEL Lyon-Villeurbanne · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$10.08
All 3 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing: Will Usyk win by KO/TKO/DQ?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$15.19
Will Fury beat Usyk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$21.99
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST+66.7%+$6.93
Páfos FC vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$12.63
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+49.3%+$7
Paris FC vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$22.59
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2025-11-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$11.88
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-11-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+58.7%+$6.46
All 2 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+53.8%+$5.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
AC Milan vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+51.5%+$6.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
PEC Zwolle vs. Sparta Rotterdam: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$20.26
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.