Tennis · resolved market
Rolex Paris Masters: Grigor Dimitrov vs Daniil Medvedev
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc47a99b94797f60d4e365fe748ee2f102c0df13f93a957a48cdd619068443675
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Medvedevof Dimitrov, Medvedev
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43a3…e3a5backed Medvedev | 75c | 48,953$36,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,253.68 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd123…d341backed Dimitrov | 1c | 39,878$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.87 | 248 | 41.5%103 W · 145 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Dimitrov | 25c | 36,547$8,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,984.12 | 220 | 37.7%83 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Dimitrov | 22c | 8,190$1,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,834.45 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Dimitrov | 27c | 5,152$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.92 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Dimitrov | 18c | 4,722$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.3 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…e23dbacked Dimitrov | 29c | 4,089$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,185.29 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Dimitrov | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Dimitrov | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Dimitrov | 7c | 2,142$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Medvedev | 73c | 2,141$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.07 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Dimitrov | 26c | 1,676$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.83 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Medvedev | 69c | 820.65$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.4 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Medvedev | 73c | 799.99$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa71a…e4e2backed Medvedev | 74c | 700$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Dimitrov | 15c | 500$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.1 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Dimitrov | 28c | 439.29$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Medvedev | 72c | 434.87$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.14 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad10…c665backed Dimitrov | 29c | 394.51$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7826…20b1backed Dimitrov | 28c | 357.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Dimitrov | 31c | 214.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 645 | 40.2%259 W · 386 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Dimitrov | 28c | 210.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0480…0a91backed Dimitrov | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…074dbacked Dimitrov | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…e7b3backed Dimitrov | 28c | 177.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49bf…4fd7backed Dimitrov | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x647d…3cd9backed Medvedev | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Dimitrov | 27c | 149.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6809…b188backed Medvedev | 74c | 137.84$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 82 | 69.5%57 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x559e…7fe2backed Medvedev | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…4f9cbacked Medvedev | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Medvedev | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 465 | 56.1%261 W · 204 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Medvedev | 74c | 108.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb6…da3ebacked Medvedev | 73c | 100.05$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Medvedev | 74c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29be…3d6cbacked Dimitrov | 28c | 70.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7207…1ce7backed Medvedev | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9d…c744backed Dimitrov | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Medvedev | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…a2cabacked Medvedev | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad5…bec4backed Dimitrov | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…16fdbacked Dimitrov | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…9373backed Medvedev | 77c | 52.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 129 | 74.4%96 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Dimitrov | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Medvedev | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Dimitrov | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc256…aba2backed Medvedev | 75c | 46.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0683…8689backed Medvedev | 75c | 45.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…8b15backed Medvedev | 78c | 43.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd26…6b44backed Dimitrov | 30c | 40.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf24…0039backed Medvedev | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8b…21d7backed Medvedev | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ef…1be5backed Medvedev | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…8355backed Medvedev | 73c | 26.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…833bbacked Medvedev | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Medvedev | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Medvedev | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad7e…e189backed Medvedev | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.