Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e7fba8542038a93ce73b0850fcf4337eeb6e3c4fad2c6bfc61e37de96dd86ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $125,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5873…f69abacked Over | 37c | 26,700$9,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,821 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 24,102$12,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,669.14 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 73c | 13,432$9,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,578.36 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 41c | 7,074$2,873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,873.18 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…4399backed Over | 62c | 6,613$4,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,512.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed Under | 4c | 4,900$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.39 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…6711backed Over | 77c | 3,239$2,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.01 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +8.2wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 56c | 1,948$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.34 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 61c | 1,640$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.6 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Over | 62c | 1,613$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.9 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 62c | 1,452$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.61 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb960…8c47backed Over | 56c | 999.99$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 62c | 564.52$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.52 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 54c | 555$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.3 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 38c | 486.9$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.96 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…dc0abacked Over | 77c | 462.12$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 48c | 375$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…cb71backed Over | 56c | 357.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Under | 39c | 332$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.48 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Over | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 71c | 289.12$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.84 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…ea47backed Over | 49c | 226.53$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.53 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 61c | 181.97$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.97 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 26c | 159.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…9d56backed Over | 61c | 130.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 63c | 116.77$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 59c | 111.66$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc460…0aa4backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under | 65c | 84.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 57c | 82.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…a9a2backed Over | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb85e…e18dbacked Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 39c | 78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x727c…c1f5backed Over | 62c | 51.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed Over | 60c | 51.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 65c | 45.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Over | 46c | 43.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…76bcbacked Over | 61c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b40…93f4backed Over | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…6ec5backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Over | 62c | 32.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276f…bfb5backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf187…b390backed Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 50c | 31.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 36 | 88.9%32 W · 4 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…e3d9backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eda…1847backed Over | 68c | 26.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd26…6b44backed Over | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a96…e12fbacked Over | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 62c | 24.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 77c | 24.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Over | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Over | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf18…7a1abacked Under | 66c | 16.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.