Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa15983a87494907ea99876dd82bcd752bf6246f1234429664bbdb89bf533f664
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 40c | 3,434$1,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.71 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa33…63e6backed Yes | 64c | 1,561$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…f2f2backed Yes | 57c | 1,000$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.13 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 43c | 757.9$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.22 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 64c | 560.78$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.66 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 65c | 483.27$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.85 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…0579backed Yes | 55c | 469.22$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed No | 35c | 406$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.46 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed No | 35c | 281.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.26 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 41c | 277.78$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.88 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 35c | 263.56$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.32 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x363a…b79ebacked Yes | 64c | 157$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4eb…5857backed Yes | 55c | 127.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Yes | 65c | 124.38$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.85 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Yes | 42c | 111$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed51…eb3bbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1b…380ebacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Yes | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…07f2backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed No | 36c | 82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…d776backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ed…2a85backed Yes | 63c | 64.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked No | 36c | 59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Yes | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked No | 36c | 52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…d6bdbacked No | 36c | 51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…c0fabacked Yes | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6c14…9d72backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed No | 36c | 43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1e…327abacked Yes | 44c | 38.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Yes | 64c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4623…e2d7backed Yes | 57c | 35.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e6…f251backed No | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…a1c4backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d00…a6f3backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Yes | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed No | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Yes | 64c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Yes | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…aeaabacked Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Yes | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Yes | 64c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked No | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda03…7f8cbacked No | 58c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…349cbacked Yes | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Yes | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…e845backed Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255f…dad2backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.