Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18c4c7fe785360bbb923dee441f863819b0b7c01e66497e8c3d4b08b24b0ff93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 2,966$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.42 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 7c | 1,251$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 17c | 1,236$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.13 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 29c | 1,210$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.23 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efe…7b44backed Over | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Over | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fe…7365backed Under | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 22c | 236.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 59c | 84.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.83 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Over | 62c | 81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…13d5backed Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 74c | 65.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb063…c9d1backed Over | 59c | 40.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276f…bfb5backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…349cbacked Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…9ffabacked Over | 65c | 29.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…6710backed Over | 76c | 26.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeecc…6930backed Over | 61c | 22.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.