Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13bc8fa660c677532065e83d74a8925fda18a6e4a4a1aec192715d911746bc64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,141
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,141 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 40c | 10,621$4,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,321.12 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 59c | 5,294$3,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,124.45 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 65c | 3,941$2,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,563.02 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed Under | 1c | 2,100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1842…b628backed Under | 69c | 1,300$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under | 75c | 1,212$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 65c | 924.05$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.62 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 906.35$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.97 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 60c | 547.67$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.6 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa0…fbbdbacked Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 62c | 250$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 93 | 50.5%47 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…ff1fbacked Over | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…8263backed Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2212…b427backed Under | 73c | 190.05$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 165.66$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 79c | 130$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 61c | 126$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Under | 61c | 125$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Over | 36c | 120.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 54c | 80.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 37c | 76.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…bde4backed Over | 28c | 71.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 61c | 67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 62c | 62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Under | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked Over | 41c | 59.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 29c | 56.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed Under | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 68c | 55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Under | 66c | 55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 21c | 51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +206.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb626…3b64backed Under | 73c | 41.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Over | 39c | 41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4623…e2d7backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Over | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Over | 39c | 39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 40c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Over | 39c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c14…9d72backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…d9c3backed Under | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Over | 39c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Over | 51c | 22.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc368…0b4ebacked Under | 62c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5this page
- SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Werder Bremen vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.