Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane International: Grigor Dimitrov vs Pablo Carreno Busta
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0db8564280e8802518cc68319ce8a44ef289b154ad0266f72247aee1ef0e2f1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dimitrovof Dimitrov, Busta
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc933…5366backed Busta | 34c | 4,979$1,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,692.93 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 44cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ae…3020backed Dimitrov | 69c | 4,320$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,319.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe916…4563backed Busta | 42c | 3,991$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Dimitrov | 66c | 3,580$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.39 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Busta | 37c | 3,174$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.26 | 375 | 40.8%153 W · 222 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Dimitrov | 63c | 2,287$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.32 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Dimitrov | 59c | 2,101$1,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.35 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Busta | 19c | 1,681$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.3 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Busta | 11c | 1,592$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.35 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Dimitrov | 66c | 1,470$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.7 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Busta | 15c | 1,435$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.43 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Busta | 34c | 1,315$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.26 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Busta | 22c | 1,250$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.52 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Dimitrov | 67c | 1,113$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.31 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…5bf6backed Dimitrov | 65c | 1,100$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.99 | 206 | 53.4%110 W · 96 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Busta | 35c | 1,024$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.51 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Busta | 38c | 1,008$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Dimitrov | 59c | 880.24$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.98 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Busta | 35c | 812.76$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.47 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Dimitrov | 62c | 639.56$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.43 | 284 | 51.1%145 W · 139 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ac…fd51backed Dimitrov | 66c | 602.62$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.89 | 284 | 44.7%127 W · 157 L | +13.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Busta | 19c | 581.39$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.35 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Dimitrov | 56c | 560.4$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.31 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ec…f5b5backed Dimitrov | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Dimitrov | 65c | 499.97$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.99 | 1,158 | 44.4%514 W · 644 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…df40backed Busta | 35c | 430.54$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.67 | 238 | 47.1%112 W · 126 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Busta | 33c | 375$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Dimitrov | 77c | 361.3$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Dimitrov | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Dimitrov | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ad…6b4cbacked Dimitrov | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Busta | 28c | 228$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 757 | 48.6%368 W · 389 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Busta | 35c | 210$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Dimitrov | 60c | 200$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Busta | 35c | 192.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc21e…0215backed Dimitrov | 65c | 160$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Busta | 35c | 158.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Busta | 17c | 148.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 222 | 36.9%82 W · 140 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Busta | 35c | 147.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b7…8b0cbacked Busta | 14c | 139.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…3684backed Busta | 27c | 130.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Busta | 18c | 120.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Busta | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…4daabacked Busta | 37c | 118.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Dimitrov | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Busta | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 341 | 54.3%185 W · 156 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Dimitrov | 71c | 95.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6713…73dabacked Dimitrov | 67c | 73.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c2…e8a3backed Dimitrov | 71c | 70.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Dimitrov | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Busta | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0d03backed Dimitrov | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 166 | 57.8%96 W · 70 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae04…7411backed Dimitrov | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Busta | 19c | 59.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 281 | 39.1%110 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb768…b6f7backed Busta | 18c | 58.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb71d…0d44backed Busta | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Busta | 36c | 48.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2c…90d4backed Dimitrov | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | +10.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…c79bbacked Dimitrov | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…382ebacked Dimitrov | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…aa18backed Dimitrov | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Busta | 34c | 42.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Busta | 35c | 40.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb58a…ca54backed Dimitrov | 67c | 38.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +58%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Busta | 35c | 37.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d2…9a53backed Busta | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…806abacked Dimitrov | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x262d…33ddbacked Dimitrov | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 212 | 63.7%135 W · 77 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c20…6fd4backed Dimitrov | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Dimitrov | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Dimitrov | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb203…8e45backed Dimitrov | 66c | 19.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d1…4b66backed Dimitrov | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd26…6b44backed Dimitrov | 65c | 15.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brisbane International: Grigor Dimitrov vs Pablo Carreno Bustathis page
- Set 1 Winner: Dimitrov vs BustaDimitrov won
- Set Handicap: Dimitrov (-1.5) vs Busta (+1.5)Dimitrov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.