Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacb94834f86b3c36e046ca1f003ced1aedaf09b07c4a598690f30ea1ff5f8947
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 56c | 7,196$4,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,040.52 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,950 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +148.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5d…f4e1backed Yes | 42c | 2,810$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,629.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 56c | 2,446$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.28 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 60c | 2,361$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.09 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…819fbacked Yes | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.91 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…f807backed No | 56c | 1,832$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x887a…c417backed Yes | 44c | 1,830$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 59c | 1,718$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 66c | 1,209$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.24 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 54c | 1,016$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.68 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed No | 44c | 983$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.52 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Yes | 36c | 818.47$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 44c | 783.78$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.34 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6b…8115backed Yes | 38c | 775$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +164.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.05 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 42c | 595.24$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.24 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 45c | 555.56$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.56 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed No | 66c | 486.32$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.97 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Yes | 62c | 449.22$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 50c | 430$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.07 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 53c | 244.77$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.84 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Yes | 76c | 241.64$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…7cd6backed Yes | 35c | 228.71$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 44c | 227.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 45c | 223.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 42c | 219.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.31 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked No | 30c | 202.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…f2bbbacked Yes | 41c | 182.93$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 57c | 160.68$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…c48dbacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 61c | 135$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…71fdbacked Yes | 33c | 117.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.81 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes | 42c | 110.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 31c | 110$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d4…82e5backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 60cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 64c | 106.63$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 56c | 104$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 42c | 101.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2324…2b86backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…9b52backed Yes | 44c | 90.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 47cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 44c | 81.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 55c | 75.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed No | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 51c | 73.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 56c | 63.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 53c | 54.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Yes | 37c | 51.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Yes | 44c | 46.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd26…6b44backed Yes | 45c | 45.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc0…ef21backed Yes | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…fdd1backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x188e…4812backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…09b1backed Yes | 34c | 44.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…3d62backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +87%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b08…1d23backed Yes | 44c | 42.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 54c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 55c | 37.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 40c | 35.51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 43c | 35.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…a9dfbacked Yes | 40c | 33.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8402backed Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 58c | 24.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 57c | 21.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-27?this page
- Will FC St. Pauli vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?No won
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-09-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.