Bundesliga · resolved market
Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-09-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c34f93ceeb2438c1ceca53627945250df96536d8f07aa02eda1af1876da7858
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,578
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 68c | 3,608$2,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.51 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 3,520$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.26 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…819fbacked Yes | 33c | 3,030$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 70c | 3,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 31c | 844$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.61 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 76c | 705.69$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.89 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 70c | 665.97$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.79 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 25c | 510$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Yes | 33c | 424.45$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 38c | 336.79$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 69c | 299.05$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…69f1backed No | 71c | 280.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.67 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -31%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…6445backed No | 71c | 280.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.21 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 28c | 239.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 29c | 226.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 62c | 211.45$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 29c | 175$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.75 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 67c | 118.42$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 26c | 96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d42…d896backed No | 71c | 94.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 68cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 70c | 86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…088bbacked No | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d8…e7d2backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 67c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9c…a734backed No | 72c | 59.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…df1bbacked No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5751…cb3abacked Yes | 33c | 40.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…9dfabacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 61c | 33.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31fa…2297backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ca…2077backed No | 72c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 71c | 17.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC St. Pauli win on 2025-09-27?this page
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-27?Yes won
- Will FC St. Pauli vs. Bayer Leverkusen end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.