NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd38b78a2fa1955234fb693fd1039a09e24a830839da94c593dc9523cec184a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 51c | 2,640$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344.51 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 2,614$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.73 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 1,887$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 51c | 1,872$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.94 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 45c | 1,469$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.22 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 55c | 1,364$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 1,282$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.76 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed Under | 55c | 910$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.5 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 703.02$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.27 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe09…7acebacked Over | 51c | 447.12$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.29 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 51c | 333.33$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Over | 51c | 305.97$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.04 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Over | 51c | 140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 49c | 126.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…9531backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 367 | 51.5%189 W · 178 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fc…13ccbacked Under | 47c | 92.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.86 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 40c | 43.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c2…2f0bbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 49c | 37.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…3f14backed Under | 49c | 31.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 48c | 31.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…6c7ebacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd26…6b44backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb91…ff36backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Pistons won
- Pistons vs. CavaliersPistons won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.