NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34186ca9cb1976ed9fc8ebf36900d093fa294ec6119ccf502f90e4596659df32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9315…a744backed Over | 52c | 17,000$8,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,840 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +10.7wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…1a5dbacked Under | 48c | 17,000$8,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,840 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…749ebacked Over | 51c | 12,016$6,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,128.11 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 8,216$4,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,190.71 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 3c | 5,278$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.61 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 48c | 3,419$1,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,764.95 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 48c | 2,938$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.84 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 2,240$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 1,682$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.68 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 1,258$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.3 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 52c | 1,227$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.11 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Over | 53c | 585.35$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.24 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 514.11$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.51 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…5af4backed Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…e8a6backed Over | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…04f4backed Under | 41c | 199.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 226 | 33.2%75 W · 151 L | +14.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…9141backed Over | 58c | 171.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 48c | 160$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…23d8backed Over | 53c | 159.43$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 51c | 101.78$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 52c | 94.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 52c | 93.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 52c | 91.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…cb14backed Over | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Over | 55c | 71.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 48c | 68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…ed59backed Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 47c | 58.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…0899backed Over | 57c | 50.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 331 | 47.4%157 W · 174 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9460…b127backed Over | 25c | 49.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 46c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed Under | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 317 | 54.6%173 W · 144 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 342 | 54.1%185 W · 157 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…da58backed Over | 57c | 41.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…d43cbacked Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 288 | 52.8%152 W · 136 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbedf…8817backed Under | 49c | 38.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de1…2d12backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 68.6%116 W · 53 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 340 | 53.8%183 W · 157 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Under | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 366 | 51.4%188 W · 178 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Under | 48c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 315 | 51.1%161 W · 154 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…3264backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Under | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 204 | 56.4%115 W · 89 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 49c | 29.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…0adcbacked Over | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 252 | 50.8%128 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Under | 50c | 26.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 273 | 50.9%139 W · 134 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 326 | 49.7%162 W · 164 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 312 | 50.3%157 W · 155 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 238 | 50.8%121 W · 117 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 318 | 52.2%166 W · 152 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 479 | 48%230 W · 249 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce42…5cddbacked Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Pistons won
- Pistons vs. CavaliersPistons won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.