NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aaee0d223537c476253d76df318340bb019bceef4f3ebcc760e72c42ba26cfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0352…3292backed Over | 50c | 3,825$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912.5 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 2,237$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 2,090$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 220 | 35.5%78 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 44c | 1,784$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.04 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Over | 54c | 1,442$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778 | 193 | 59.6%115 W · 78 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 54c | 1,087$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 52c | 950.38$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.11 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0623…4e38backed Over | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 725.31$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.92 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…2579backed Under | 64c | 655$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 585$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.07 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…48acbacked Under | 45c | 500$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a9…45ffbacked Over | 53c | 499.42$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.69 | 238 | 50%119 W · 119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…5af4backed Under | 43c | 364$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.48 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 47c | 247.85$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.36 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 50c | 108$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 332 | 58.7%195 W · 137 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7927…34d2backed Under | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 46c | 64.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.73 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 49c | 51.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ef…fa7bbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9d…f8d2backed Over | 78c | 15.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 236.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Pistons won
- Pistons vs. CavaliersPistons won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 121.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.