Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Jasmine Paolini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb0e0c98ebfb4003c6fda3b4352dbd16ad3042aa080bae729383e4544020894d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Paoliniof Sasnovich, Paolini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sasnovich | 9c | 14,140$1,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.15 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Sasnovich | 12c | 12,733$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.21 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sasnovich | 14c | 5,284$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.64 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…c100backed Paolini | 71c | 5,000$3,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450 | 430 | 51.2%220 W · 210 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Sasnovich | 28c | 4,111$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.39 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Sasnovich | 23c | 2,644$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.22 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sasnovich | 10c | 2,397$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.77 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf152…64aabacked Paolini | 70c | 2,387$1,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.01 | 270 | 63.7%172 W · 98 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Paolini | 74c | 2,135$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.67 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Sasnovich | 9c | 1,971$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.91 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Sasnovich | 29c | 1,928$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.12 | 313 | 32.3%101 W · 212 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sasnovich | 28c | 1,864$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.02 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Sasnovich | 29c | 983.4$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.19 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Paolini | 71c | 704.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.23 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Sasnovich | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Sasnovich | 8c | 597.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0694…4a4ebacked Paolini | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 262 | 47.7%125 W · 137 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Sasnovich | 10c | 419.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Sasnovich | 12c | 395.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Sasnovich | 29c | 350$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.5 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Sasnovich | 9c | 333$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Sasnovich | 7c | 300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Sasnovich | 29c | 240$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Sasnovich | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 186 | 44.6%83 W · 103 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Sasnovich | 9c | 148.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 242 | 29.8%72 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Paolini | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Paolini | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Sasnovich | 10c | 133.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sasnovich | 28c | 127.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Sasnovich | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 363 | 49.9%181 W · 182 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Sasnovich | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Sasnovich | 15c | 87.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Sasnovich | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6c…576ebacked Paolini | 68c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2c…6b78backed Sasnovich | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78a…61c4backed Paolini | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 153 | 64.1%98 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…87d2backed Paolini | 71c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 53 | 69.8%37 W · 16 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…9218backed Paolini | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Sasnovich | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed Paolini | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Paolini | 70c | 44.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…7dc1backed Sasnovich | 30c | 44.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Sasnovich | 30c | 43.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 678 | 36%244 W · 434 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…c974backed Paolini | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5815…ed96backed Paolini | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…44febacked Paolini | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd26…6b44backed Paolini | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4291…b6bdbacked Paolini | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…3679backed Paolini | 71c | 19.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Jasmine Paolinithis page
- Set Handicap: Paolini (-1.5) vs Sasnovich (+1.5)Paolini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.