Tennis · resolved market
WTA Finals, Stefanie Graf Group: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa48445149e53810370a09ef7bfb30557b18026a9831396e16b77718a5d8a3e6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Paolini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23aa…d2c0backed Paolini | 7c | 18,700$1,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,259.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Paolini | 11c | 2,238$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.73 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Paolini | 19c | 1,789$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.45 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Sabalenka | 78c | 1,602$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.44 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Sabalenka | 77c | 1,406$1,089 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.4 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Paolini | 25c | 1,400$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.88 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Paolini | 27c | 1,328$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.52 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a84…e271backed Sabalenka | 76c | 1,242$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.08 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Paolini | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb49…3adebacked Sabalenka | 75c | 825$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed78…e85dbacked Paolini | 25c | 789$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15b2…8a77backed Paolini | 25c | 741$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Paolini | 24c | 703.32$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.21 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf135…adc6backed Sabalenka | 75c | 654$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eca…5130backed Sabalenka | 75c | 591$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x891a…917dbacked Paolini | 25c | 471$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1a…417fbacked Paolini | 25c | 456$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…6c30backed Paolini | 24c | 417.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7616…69eebacked Sabalenka | 74c | 405.99$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3872…78d1backed Sabalenka | 75c | 387$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Paolini | 25c | 382.49$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.59 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Paolini | 24c | 341.55$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…559abacked Sabalenka | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -6.0wins | -0.21per pick | 62cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked Paolini | 15c | 257.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Sabalenka | 76c | 255.32$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.28 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…c3e1backed Sabalenka | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Paolini | 23c | 199.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dd…9889backed Sabalenka | 76c | 197.83$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb1…4ed5backed Sabalenka | 76c | 181.58$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2f…6aa9backed Sabalenka | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d80…07d4backed Sabalenka | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6387…9d9bbacked Sabalenka | 76c | 102$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Sabalenka | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Paolini | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Sabalenka | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Paolini | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Sabalenka | 75c | 82.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9f…4cc8backed Paolini | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Sabalenka | 76c | 78.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…0f54backed Paolini | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af2…3965backed Sabalenka | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…e2afbacked Sabalenka | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Paolini | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…0a16backed Sabalenka | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 270 | 58.1%157 W · 113 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e1…9364backed Sabalenka | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5d…bf4bbacked Sabalenka | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4efd…ef55backed Sabalenka | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1419…94efbacked Sabalenka | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…3be3backed Sabalenka | 74c | 27.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 164 | 59.8%98 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f1…fde9backed Sabalenka | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd26…6b44backed Sabalenka | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e51…fb6bbacked Sabalenka | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc175…a7ecbacked Sabalenka | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c6…39e0backed Sabalenka | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2149…3a74backed Sabalenka | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.