TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1419…94ef

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
31
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: La Liga, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category La Liga at 53 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2025, EST1163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritzbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST+47.1%+$18.82
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimovabacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+42.9%+$12.86
WTA Finals, Final Stage: Jessica Pegula vs Elena Rybakinabacked Rybakina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+80.7%+$48.25
Open de Moselle: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Vitaliy Sachkobacked Perricard · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$40
WTA Finals, Stefanie Graf Group: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jasmine Paolinibacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+31.6%+$7.89
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexander Bublikbacked Bublik · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Erste Bank Open: Corentin Moutet vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Moutet · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Erste Bank Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Corentin Moutetbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Swiss Indoors Basel: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marin Cilicbacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT+25%+$6.25
Erste Bank Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Corentin Moutetbacked Moutet · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+58.7%+$14.68
Erste Bank Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Alexander Zverevbacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$7.89
All 11 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-45.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 17, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick77cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+44.9%+$13.48
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$12.31
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+61.3%+$12.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+40.6%+$12.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$17.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+28.2%+$5.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+25.4%+$6.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$2,062Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,062
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Oct 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Xi shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on October 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.